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UC DAVIS

UC DAVISUCD

2-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 4:00 PM ET
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
View Odds Details →

SMU

SMUSMU

2-0  |  Home

56
Key Game
Dylan Mauro
KEY GAME

Dylan Mauro

#36 | Punter
@
Wade McSparron
KEY GAME

Wade McSparron

#43 | Punter
Player
Dylan Mauro None-None
Wade McSparron None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UC DAVIS
3%
📊
SMU
97%
UC DAVIS 6% Book Odds: +1600
SMU 98% Book Odds: -4000
Book Implied: 5.90% / 97.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.0
Projected
Book Total
58.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 58.5 52%
Under 58.5 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
SMU
Book Spread
-32.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (SMU)
UC DavisUCD (+32.5) 0 SMUSMU (-32.5)
SMU Mustangs (-32.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UC Davis Cover

0.6%

SMU Cover

99.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SMU -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

UCD By 1-6 points

0.4%

UCD By 7-13 points

0.1%

SMU By 1-6 points

1.4%

SMU By 7-13 points

4.1%

AI Model Projected Score
12.5
UC DAVIS
Book Implied: 13
47.5
SMU
Book Implied: 45.50
Simulated Score
16
UC DAVIS
Book Implied: 13
40
SMU
Book Implied: 45.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI SMU Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim SMU Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI SMU (-32.5) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim UC Davis (+32.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +24.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o58.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
D
Sim u58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 UCD @ SMU 10 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +100.1% more
SMU: 164.4 vs UC Davis: 82.2
Total Yards (L5) +87.3% more
SMU: 513.1 vs UC Davis: 273.9
Turnovers (L5) +42.6% more
SMU: 2.4 vs UC Davis: 1.7
First Downs (L5) +37.7% more
SMU: 22.6 vs UC Davis: 16.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCD Score 12.5 10
SMU Score 47.5 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.6 / 16.4 20.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 164.4 / 82.2 93.0 / 62.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 513.1 / 273.9 547.0 / 233.0
Turnovers 2.4 / 1.7 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1200 / -2381 → +1600 / -4000 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +24.5 / -24.5 → +32.5 / -32.5 ↑
85%TICKETS15%
1%MONEY99%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 58.5
12%TICKETS88%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCD
--
SMU Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 13.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCD
--
SMU Advantage
1-1-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 13.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UCD
--
SMU
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
UCD
SMU
UCD
ML
100% 3-0
50% 1-1
100% 3-0
50% 1-1
ATS
67% 2-1
100% 2-0
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
TTL
67% 2-1
100% 2-0
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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