Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Utah State @ Washington USU @ WASH

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

0-2  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 3:30 PM ET
Husky Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WASHINGTONWASH

2-0  |  Home

16
Key Game
Kian Afrookhteh
KEY GAME

Kian Afrookhteh

#19 | Place kicker
@
Hunter Green
KEY GAME

Hunter Green

#93 | Punter
Player
Kian Afrookhteh None-None
Hunter Green None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTAH STATE
5%
📊
WASHINGTON
95%
▲ Edge: +0.20% (USU)
UTAH STATE 5% Book Odds: +2000
WASHINGTON 99% Book Odds: -6667
Book Implied: 4.80% / 98.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 55.5 54%
Under 55.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
-28.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Washington)
Utah StateUSU (+28.5) 0 WashingtonWASH (-28.5)
Washington Huskies (-28.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Utah State Cover

1.3%

Washington Cover

98.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WASH -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WASH)

USU By 1-6 points

0.9%

USU By 7-13 points

0.3%

WASH By 1-6 points

2.5%

WASH By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
13
UTAH STATE
Book Implied: 13.50
44
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 42
Simulated Score
29
UTAH STATE
Book Implied: 13.50
33
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 42
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Washington Win
95% Win Prob
B
Sim Washington Win
65% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Washington (-28.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Utah State (+28.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Sim o55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 62.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 USU @ WASH 14 - 16
Sep 19, 2015 USU @ WASH 17 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +51.8% more
Utah State: 2.0 vs Washington: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +12.4% more
Utah State: 22.7 vs Washington: 19.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 13.0 14
WASH Score 44.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.8 / 22.7 18.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 147.0 / 154.9 107.0 / 75.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.35 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 377.0 / 379.4 356.0 / 271.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 2.0 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1200 / -2381 → +2000 / -6667 ↑
1%TICKETS99%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +24.5 / -24.5 → +28.5 / -28.5 ↑
86%TICKETS14%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 55.5 ↓
25%TICKETS75%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU
0-3-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -15.7 ATS +/-: -2.7
WASH Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -15.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU Advantage
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -15.7 ATS +/-: -2.7
WASH
0-3-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -15.5
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
0-3-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -20.5
WASH
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -12.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WASH
USU
WASH
USU
ML
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
ATS
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
TTL
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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