Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arizona @ BYU ARIZ @ BYU

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

1-1  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 3:30 PM ET
LaVell Edwards Stadium
View Odds Details →

BYU

BYUBYU

2-0  |  Home

28
Key Game
Chase Ridley
KEY GAME

Chase Ridley

#37 | Punter
@
Fuller Shurtz
KEY GAME

Fuller Shurtz

#19 | Punter
Player
Chase Ridley None-None
Fuller Shurtz None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA
20%
📊
BYU
80%
▲ Edge: +6.70% (BYU)
ARIZONA 30% Book Odds: +236
BYU 74% Book Odds: -279
Book Implied: 29.80% / 73.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 49.5 56%
Under 49.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.6
BYU
Book Spread
-7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.6 points (BYU)
ArizonaARIZ (+7) 0 BYUBYU (-7)
BYU Cougars (-7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona Cover

14.9%

BYU Cover

85.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BYU -14.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BYU)

ARIZ By 1-6 points

7.5%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

4.4%

BYU By 1-6 points

12.5%

BYU By 7-13 points

18.7%

AI Model Projected Score
18.2
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 21.20
32.8
BYU
Book Implied: 28.20
Simulated Score
20
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 21.20
29
BYU
Book Implied: 28.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI BYU Win
80% Win Prob
C
Sim BYU Win
81% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI BYU (-7) Win
Proj Spread: -14.6
C
Sim BYU (-7) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Sim o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 ARIZ @ BYU 17 - 28
Oct 11, 2025 BYU @ ARIZ 33 - 27
Oct 12, 2024 ARIZ @ BYU 19 - 41
Sep 4, 2021 BYU @ ARIZ 24 - 16
Sep 1, 2018 BYU @ ARIZ 28 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.2% more
BYU: 182.2 vs Arizona: 168.4
Turnovers (L5) +23.9% more
Arizona: 1.6 vs BYU: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARIZ Score 18.2 17
BYU Score 32.8 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.0 / 24.6 17.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 182.2 / 168.4 148.0 / 97.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 415.0 / 443.2 365.0 / 327.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.6 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +246 / -312 → +236 / -279 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7.5 / -7.5 → +7 / -7 ↓
31%TICKETS69%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 49.5 ↓
65%TICKETS35%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARIZ
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 16.7 ATS +/-: +2.8
BYU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARIZ
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 16.7 ATS +/-: +2.8
BYU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ARIZ
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
BYU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BYU
ARIZ
BYU
ARIZ
ML
100% 4-0
100% 6-0
80% 4-1
67% 4-2
ATS
50% 2-2
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
TTL
0% 0-4
33% 2-4
20% 1-4
17% 1-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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