ARIZONA
ARIZONAARIZ
1-1 | Road
17
BYU
BYUBYU
2-0 | Home
28
Key Game
KEY GAME
Chase Ridley
#37 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Fuller Shurtz
#19 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Chase Ridley | None-None |
| Fuller Shurtz | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA
20%
BYU
80%
▲ Edge: +6.70% (BYU)
ARIZONA
30%
Book Odds: +236
BYU
74%
Book Odds: -279
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 49.5
56%
Under 49.5
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.6
BYU
Book Spread
-7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.6 points (BYU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BYU -14.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BYU)
ARIZ By 1-6 points
7.5%
ARIZ By 7-13 points
4.4%
BYU By 1-6 points
12.5%
BYU By 7-13 points
18.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
18.2
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 21.20
BYU
32.8
BYU
Book Implied: 28.20
Simulated Score
Arizona
20
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 21.20
BYU
29
BYU
Book Implied: 28.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
BYU
Win
80% Win Prob
C
Sim
BYU
Win
81% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
BYU (-7)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.6
C
Sim
BYU (-7)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o49.5
Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Sim
o49.5
Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 12, 2026
ARIZ @ BYU
17 - 28
Oct 11, 2025
BYU @ ARIZ
33 - 27
Oct 12, 2024
ARIZ @ BYU
19 - 41
Sep 4, 2021
BYU @ ARIZ
24 - 16
Sep 1, 2018
BYU @ ARIZ
28 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+8.2% more
BYU: 182.2
vs
Arizona: 168.4
Turnovers (L5)
+23.9% more
Arizona: 1.6
vs
BYU: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARIZ Score
18.2
17
BYU Score
32.8
28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
24.0 / 24.6
17.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards
182.2 / 168.4
148.0 / 97.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.6 / 0.5
0.55 / 0.42
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.6
0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards
415.0 / 443.2
365.0 / 327.0
Turnovers
1.2 / 1.6
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +246 / -312
→
+236 / -279
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7.5 / -7.5
→
+7 / -7
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5
→
49.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARIZ
6-2-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 16.0
ATS +/-: +4.6
BYU
Advantage
7-1-0
(87.5%)
Margin: 13.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARIZ
3-5-0
(37.5%)
Margin: 16.0
ATS +/-: +4.6
BYU
Advantage
6-2-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 13.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ARIZ
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: 0.0
BYU
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BYU
ARIZ
BYU
ARIZ
ML
86%
6-1
100%
8-0
62%
5-3
75%
6-2
ATS
57%
4-3
62%
5-3
62%
5-3
38%
3-5
TTL
29%
2-5
25%
2-6
38%
3-5
25%
2-6
Contextual Game News
Holy War Hits New Heights: Utah and BYU Clash as Top-10 Teams fo…
Houston Cougars Face Cincinnati Bearcats: Four Pressing Question…
Collin Klein's First Season at K-State: Four Games Left to Flip …
Big 12 Bowl Shakeup: Utah and BYU Lead CFP Charge, Texas Tech an…
Kenny Minchey's Journey from Notre Dame Backup to Kentucky's Unl…