Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Alabama @ Kentucky ALA @ UK

ALABAMA

ALABAMAALA

2-0  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 3:30 PM ET
Kroger Field
View Odds Details →

KENTUCKY

KENTUCKYUK

1-1  |  Home

17
Key Game
Alex Asparuhov
KEY GAME

Alex Asparuhov

#32 | Punter
@
Thomas O'Hara
KEY GAME

Thomas O'Hara

#48 | Punter
Player
Alex Asparuhov None-None
Thomas O'Hara None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ALABAMA
60%
📊
KENTUCKY
40%
▲ Edge: +15.90% (UK)
ALABAMA 80% Book Odds: -397
KENTUCKY 24% Book Odds: +320
Book Implied: 79.90% / 23.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.0
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.5 (Under)
Over 48.5 49%
Under 48.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.4
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
+10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.6 points (Kentucky)
AlabamaALA (-10) 0 KentuckyUK (+10)
Kentucky Wildcats (+10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Alabama Cover

37.7%

Kentucky Cover

62.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UK +4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)

ALA By 1-6 points

16.9%

ALA By 7-13 points

18.3%

UK By 1-6 points

14.5%

UK By 7-13 points

11.8%

AI Model Projected Score
25.2
ALABAMA
Book Implied: 29.20
20.8
KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 19.20
Simulated Score
23
ALABAMA
Book Implied: 29.20
30
KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 19.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Alabama Win
60% Win Prob
D
Sim Kentucky Loss
75% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kentucky (+10) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.4
C
Sim Kentucky (+10) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.0
D
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 ALA @ UK 45 - 17
Nov 11, 2023 ALA @ UK 49 - 21
Nov 21, 2020 UK @ ALA 3 - 63
Oct 1, 2016 UK @ ALA 6 - 34
Oct 12, 2013 ALA @ UK 48 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Alabama: 0.6 vs Kentucky: 0.5
First Downs (L5) +8.2% more
Alabama: 21.4 vs Kentucky: 19.6
Turnovers (L5) +50.0% more
Kentucky: 1.4 vs Alabama: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALA Score 25.2 45
UK Score 20.8 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 21.4 14.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 132.9 / 140.6 63.0 / 155.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.07 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 363.5 / 381.4 209.0 / 343.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.9 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -422 / +315 → -397 / +320
98%TICKETS2%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -10.5 / +10.5 → -10 / +10 ↑
79%TICKETS21%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49 → 48.5 ↓
30%TICKETS70%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 23.5 ATS +/-: +10.8
UK
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +5.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 23.5 ATS +/-: +10.8
UK Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +5.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +11.7
UK
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +10.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
ALA
UK
ALA
ML
50% 3-3
100% 6-0
33% 2-4
17% 1-5
ATS
33% 2-4
67% 4-2
17% 1-5
17% 1-5
TTL
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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