Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Western KY @ Georgia WKU @ UGA

WESTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN KYWKU

0-2  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 12:45 PM ET
Sanford Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA

GEORGIAUGA

2-0  |  Home

70
Key Game
Karl Campbell
KEY GAME

Karl Campbell

#99 | Place kicker
@
Drew Miller
KEY GAME

Drew Miller

#90 | Punter
Player
Karl Campbell None-None
Drew Miller None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WESTERN KY
4%
📊
GEORGIA
96%
WESTERN KY --
GEORGIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 55.5 57%
Under 55.5 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+32.4
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
+40.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.1 points (Western Kentucky)
Western KYWKU (+40.5) 0 GeorgiaUGA (-40.5)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+40.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Western KY Cover

99.0%

Georgia Cover

1.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WKU +32.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)

WKU By 1-6 points

0.7%

WKU By 7-13 points

0.2%

UGA By 1-6 points

2.1%

UGA By 7-13 points

5.6%

AI Model Projected Score
12.8
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 7.50
45.2
GEORGIA
Book Implied: 48
Simulated Score
23
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 7.50
31
GEORGIA
Book Implied: 48
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Georgia Win
96% Win Prob
A
Sim Georgia Win
79% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Western KY (+40.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +32.4
C
Sim Western KY (+40.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +8.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o55.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 WKU @ UGA 20 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +38.3% more
Georgia: 214.7 vs Western Kentucky: 155.2
Total Yards (L5) +26.5% more
Georgia: 482.1 vs Western Kentucky: 381.0
First Downs (L5) +21.8% more
Georgia: 25.4 vs Western Kentucky: 20.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Georgia: 0.5 vs Western Kentucky: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WKU Score 12.8 20
UGA Score 45.2 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.4 / 20.9 18.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 214.7 / 155.2 234.0 / 110.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.58 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 482.1 / 381.0 493.0 / 225.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 2.1 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: 0 / 0 → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +35.5 / -35.5 → +40.5 / -40.5 ↑
78%TICKETS22%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 55.5 ↑
31%TICKETS69%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -9.3 ATS +/-: -2.4
UGA Advantage
6-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.2 ATS +/-: +7.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -9.3 ATS +/-: -2.4
UGA Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 32.2 ATS +/-: +7.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.8
UGA
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UGA
WKU
UGA
WKU
ML
100% 5-0
71% 5-2
67% 4-2
57% 4-3
ATS
60% 3-2
43% 3-4
17% 1-5
29% 2-5
TTL
60% 3-2
57% 4-3
50% 3-3
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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