Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Penn State @ Temple PSU @ TEM

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

2-0  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 12:00 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field
View Odds Details →

TEMPLE

TEMPLETEM

1-1  |  Home

9
Key Game
Ryan Barker
KEY GAME

Ryan Barker

#94 | Place kicker
@
Dante Atton
KEY GAME

Dante Atton

#7 | Punter
Player
Ryan Barker None-None
Dante Atton None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PENN STATE
87%
📊
TEMPLE
13%
▲ Edge: +6.10% (TEM)
PENN STATE 97% Book Odds: -3226
TEMPLE 7% Book Odds: +1400
Book Implied: 97% / 6.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +8.5 (Under)
Over 50.5 33%
Under 50.5 67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+20.0
TEMPLE
Book Spread
+23.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Temple)
Penn StatePSU (-23.5) 0 TempleTEM (+23.5)
Temple Owls (+23.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penn State Cover

7.7%

Temple Cover

92.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TEM +20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEM)

PSU By 1-6 points

8.6%

PSU By 7-13 points

15.4%

TEM By 1-6 points

4.2%

TEM By 7-13 points

2.1%

AI Model Projected Score
31
PENN STATE
Book Implied: 37
11
TEMPLE
Book Implied: 13.50
Simulated Score
33
PENN STATE
Book Implied: 37
20
TEMPLE
Book Implied: 13.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Penn State Win
87% Win Prob
C
Sim Penn State Win
90% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Temple (+23.5) Win
Proj Spread: +20.0
C
Sim Temple (+23.5) Win
Proj Spread: +13.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 42.0
B
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 PSU @ TEM 27 - 9
Sep 17, 2016 TEM @ PSU 27 - 34
Sep 5, 2015 PSU @ TEM 10 - 27
Nov 15, 2014 TEM @ PSU 13 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +25.9% more
Penn State: 429.8 vs Temple: 318.7
First Downs (L5) +19.8% more
Penn State: 21.7 vs Temple: 17.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.6% more
Penn State: 183.9 vs Temple: 155.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Penn State: 0.5 vs Temple: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PSU Score 31.0 27
TEM Score 11.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.4 / 21.7 14.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 155.2 / 183.9 176.0 / 148.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 318.7 / 429.8 283.0 / 416.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -2083 / +1100 → -3226 / +1400 ↓
97%TICKETS3%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -21.5 / +21.5 → -23.5 / +23.5 ↓
24%TICKETS76%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 50.5 ↓
42%TICKETS58%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -4.4
TEM
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -4.4
TEM Advantage
4-1-1 (80.0%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
TEM
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEM
PSU
TEM
PSU
ML
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
ATS
50% 3-3
50% 3-3
50% 3-3
17% 1-5
TTL
50% 3-3
83% 5-1
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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