Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arizona St @ Texas A&M ASU @ TA&M

ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

1-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 12:00 PM ET
Kyle Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS A&M

TEXAS A&MTA&M

2-0  |  Home

48
Key Game
Nick McLarty
KEY GAME

Nick McLarty

#35 | Punter
@
David Olano
KEY GAME

David Olano

#24 | Place kicker
Player
Nick McLarty None-None
David Olano None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA ST
16%
📊
TEXAS A&M
84%
ARIZONA ST 16% Book Odds: +525
TEXAS A&M 88% Book Odds: -752
Book Implied: 16% / 88.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.5
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
Over 51.5 48%
Under 51.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.5
TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
-14.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Texas A&M)
Arizona StASU (+14.5) 0 Texas A&MTA&M (-14.5)
Texas A&M Aggies (-14.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona St Cover

10.6%

Texas A&M Cover

89.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TA&M -17.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TA&M)

ASU By 1-6 points

5.6%

ASU By 7-13 points

3.0%

TA&M By 1-6 points

10.4%

TA&M By 7-13 points

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
17
ARIZONA STATE
Book Implied: 18.50
34.5
TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 33
Simulated Score
25
ARIZONA STATE
Book Implied: 18.50
34
TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 33
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas A&M Win
84% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas A&M Win
81% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texas A&M (-14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.5
D
Sim Arizona St (+14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +9.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.5
D
Sim o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 ASU @ TA&M 20 - 48
Sep 5, 2015 ASU @ TA&M 17 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Time of Possession (L5) +13.0% more
Texas A&M: 0.6 vs Arizona State: 0.5
Turnovers (L5) +20.2% more
Arizona State: 2.4 vs Texas A&M: 1.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.5% more
Arizona State: 212.8 vs Texas A&M: 179.8
Total Yards (L5) +14.9% more
Arizona State: 506.0 vs Texas A&M: 430.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ASU Score 17.0 20
TA&M Score 34.5 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.9 / 24.0 14.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 179.8 / 212.8 92.0 / 115.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 430.6 / 506.0 255.0 / 369.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 2.4 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +470 / -649 → +525 / -752 ↑
3%TICKETS97%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14.5 / -14.5 → +14.5 / -14.5
36%TICKETS64%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 51.5 ↑
48%TICKETS52%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
TA&M
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 22.7 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
TA&M
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 22.7 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +10.2
TA&M
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TA&M
ASU
TA&M
ASU
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
0% 0-3
TTL
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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