Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Howard @ Indiana HOW @ IU

HOWARD

HOWARDHOW

1-2  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

INDIANAIU

2-0  |  Home

55
Key Game
Matt Conord
KEY GAME

Matt Conord

#48 | Place kicker
@
Billy Gowers
KEY GAME

Billy Gowers

#19 | Punter
Player
Matt Conord None-None
Billy Gowers None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HOWARD
3%
📊
INDIANA
97%
HOWARD --
INDIANA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
66.0
Projected
Book Total
67.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 67.5 50%
Under 67.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+38.4
HOWARD
Book Spread
+57.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.1 points (Howard)
HowardHOW (+57.5) 0 IndianaIU (-57.5)
Howard Bison (+57.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Howard Cover

99.7%

Indiana Cover

0.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOW +38.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOW)

HOW By 1-6 points

0.2%

HOW By 7-13 points

0.1%

IU By 1-6 points

0.8%

IU By 7-13 points

2.6%

AI Model Projected Score
13.8
HOWARD
Book Implied: 5
52.2
INDIANA
Book Implied: 62.50
Simulated Score
14
HOWARD
Book Implied: 5
37
INDIANA
Book Implied: 62.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Indiana Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim Indiana Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Howard (+57.5) Win
Proj Spread: +38.4
A
Sim Howard (+57.5) Win
Proj Spread: +23.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u67.5 Win
Proj Total: 66.0
D
Sim u67.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 HOW @ IU 0 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +72.6% more
Indiana: 386.6 vs Howard: 224.0
First Downs (L5) +45.6% more
Indiana: 18.9 vs Howard: 13.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.1% more
Indiana: 155.3 vs Howard: 115.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Indiana: 0.5 vs Howard: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOW Score 13.8 0
IU Score 52.2 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.9 / 13.0 24.0 / 4.0
Rushing Yards 155.3 / 115.8 296.0 / 13.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.7 / 0.14
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 386.6 / 224.0 505.0 / 57.0
Turnovers 0.1 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +56.5 / -56.5 → +57.5 / -57.5 ↑
88%TICKETS12%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: 64.5 → 67.5 ↑
28%TICKETS72%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOW
--
IU Advantage
6-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 28.3 ATS +/-: -4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOW
--
IU Advantage
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: 28.3 ATS +/-: -4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOW
--
IU
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
HOW
IU
HOW
ML
100% 6-0
67% 2-1
67% 4-2
67% 2-1
ATS
50% 3-3
33% 1-2
83% 5-1
33% 1-2
TTL
50% 3-3
100% 3-0
83% 5-1
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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