HOWARD
HOWARDHOW
1-2 | Road
0
INDIANA
INDIANAIU
2-0 | Home
55
Key Game
KEY GAME
Matt Conord
#48 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Billy Gowers
#19 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Matt Conord | None-None |
| Billy Gowers | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HOWARD
3%
INDIANA
97%
HOWARD
--
INDIANA
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
66.0
Projected
Book Total
67.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 67.5
50%
Under 67.5
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+38.4
HOWARD
Book Spread
+57.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.1 points (Howard)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOW +38.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOW)
HOW By 1-6 points
0.2%
HOW By 7-13 points
0.1%
IU By 1-6 points
0.8%
IU By 7-13 points
2.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Howard
13.8
HOWARD
Book Implied: 5
Indiana
52.2
INDIANA
Book Implied: 62.50
Simulated Score
Howard
14
HOWARD
Book Implied: 5
Indiana
37
INDIANA
Book Implied: 62.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Indiana
Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim
Indiana
Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Howard (+57.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +38.4
A
Sim
Howard (+57.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +23.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u67.5
Win
Proj Total: 66.0
D
Sim
u67.5
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 12, 2026
HOW @ IU
0 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5)
+72.6% more
Indiana: 386.6
vs
Howard: 224.0
First Downs (L5)
+45.6% more
Indiana: 18.9
vs
Howard: 13.0
Rushing Yards (L5)
+34.1% more
Indiana: 155.3
vs
Howard: 115.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+17.0% more
Indiana: 0.5
vs
Howard: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOW Score
13.8
0
IU Score
52.2
55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
18.9 / 13.0
24.0 / 4.0
Rushing Yards
155.3 / 115.8
296.0 / 13.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.4
0.7 / 0.14
Time of Possession
0.4 / 0.5
0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards
386.6 / 224.0
505.0 / 57.0
Turnovers
0.1 / 1.3
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +56.5 / -56.5
→
+57.5 / -57.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 64.5
→
67.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOW
--
IU
Advantage
8-1-0
(88.9%)
Margin: 20.0
ATS +/-: -4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOW
--
IU
Advantage
1-8-0
(11.1%)
Margin: 20.0
ATS +/-: -4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
HOW
--
IU
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7%
Total +/-: -7.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
HOW
IU
HOW
ML
89%
8-1
100%
2-0
56%
5-4
100%
2-0
ATS
33%
3-6
50%
1-1
78%
7-2
50%
1-1
TTL
33%
3-6
100%
2-0
56%
5-4
50%
1-1
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