Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oregon @ Oklahoma St ORE @ OKST

OREGON

OREGONORE

1-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 1:30 PM ET
Boone Pickens Stadium
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA STATE

OKLAHOMA STOKST

1-1  |  Home

39
Key Game
Bailey Ettridge
KEY GAME

Bailey Ettridge

#39 | Punter
@
Lachie Pozzobon
KEY GAME

Lachie Pozzobon

#37 | Punter
Player
Bailey Ettridge None-None
Lachie Pozzobon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OREGON
88%
📊
OKLAHOMA ST
12%
▲ Edge: +3% (OKST)
OREGON 95% Book Odds: -1936
OKLAHOMA ST 9% Book Odds: +1018
Book Implied: 95.10% / 8.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.4
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +13.1 (Under)
Over 54.5 24%
Under 54.5 76%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+21.0
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Spread
+23.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Oklahoma State)
OregonORE (-23.5) 0 Oklahoma StOKST (+23.5)
Oklahoma State Cowboys (+23.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oregon Cover

6.7%

Oklahoma St Cover

93.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around OKST +21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKST)

ORE By 1-6 points

7.9%

ORE By 7-13 points

14.6%

OKST By 1-6 points

3.8%

OKST By 7-13 points

1.8%

AI Model Projected Score
31.2
OREGON
Book Implied: 39
10.2
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Implied: 15.50
Simulated Score
34
OREGON
Book Implied: 39
19
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Implied: 15.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Oregon Loss
88% Win Prob
B
Sim Oregon Loss
93% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oklahoma St (+23.5) Win
Proj Spread: +21.0
C
Sim Oklahoma St (+23.5) Win
Proj Spread: +15.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.4
A
Sim u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 ORE @ OKST 31 - 39
Sep 6, 2025 OKST @ ORE 3 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +37.3% more
Oregon: 478.8 vs Oklahoma State: 300.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +33.0% more
Oregon: 149.0 vs Oklahoma State: 99.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Oregon: 0.4 vs Oklahoma State: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +77.7% more
Oklahoma State: 2.6 vs Oregon: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORE Score 31.2 31
OKST Score 10.2 39
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.6 / 19.7 25.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 99.8 / 149.0 237.0 / 90.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.29 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 300.1 / 478.8 554.0 / 281.0
Turnovers 2.6 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -1972 / +953 → -1936 / +1018 ↓
97%TICKETS3%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -22.5 / +22.5 → -23.5 / +23.5 ↓
68%TICKETS32%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58 → 54.5 ↓
40%TICKETS60%
22%MONEY78%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORE
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
OKST
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
OKST Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ORE
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.3
OKST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKST
ORE
OKST
ORE
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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