Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Missouri @ Kansas MIZ @ KU

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

2-0  |  Road

38
FINAL
Fri, Sep 11 • 8:00 PM ET
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS

KANSASKU

1-1  |  Home

21
Key Game
Brunno Reus
KEY GAME

Brunno Reus

#40 | Place kicker
@
Matthew Gill
KEY GAME

Matthew Gill

#99 | Punter
Player
Brunno Reus None-None
Matthew Gill None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI
50%
📊
KANSAS
50%
▲ Edge: +11.30% (KU)
MISSOURI 66% Book Odds: -192
KANSAS 39% Book Odds: +160
Book Implied: 65.80% / 38.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.5 (Under)
Over 51.5 39%
Under 51.5 61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
KANSAS
Book Spread
+4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Kansas)
MissouriMIZ (-4.5) 0 KansasKU (+4.5)
Kansas Jayhawks (+4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri Cover

47.2%

Kansas Cover

52.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KU)

MIZ By 1-6 points

16.7%

MIZ By 7-13 points

16.1%

KU By 1-6 points

16.1%

KU By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
24
MISSOURI
Book Implied: 28
23
KANSAS
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
23
MISSOURI
Book Implied: 28
33
KANSAS
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Missouri Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Kansas Loss
84% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kansas (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
B
Sim Kansas (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Sim o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 11, 2026 MIZ @ KU 38 - 21
Sep 6, 2025 KU @ MIZ 31 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +14.9% more
Kansas: 462.6 vs Missouri: 402.7
Turnovers (L5) +12.1% more
Kansas: 1.4 vs Missouri: 1.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Kansas: 0.5 vs Missouri: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.3% more
Kansas: 224.0 vs Missouri: 204.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIZ Score 24.0 38
KU Score 23.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.7 / 23.6 18.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 224.0 / 204.9 81.0 / 177.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.2 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 462.6 / 402.7 255.0 / 469.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.2 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -218 / +180 → -192 / +160 ↑
89%TICKETS11%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -6.5 / +6.5 → -4.5 / +4.5 ↑
69%TICKETS31%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 51.5
34%TICKETS66%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIZ Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 18.2 ATS +/-: +4.6
KU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIZ Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 18.2 ATS +/-: +4.6
KU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIZ
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.3
KU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KU
MIZ
KU
MIZ
ML
80% 4-1
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
ATS
40% 2-3
33% 2-4
0% 0-5
50% 3-3
TTL
80% 4-1
17% 1-5
60% 3-2
33% 2-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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