Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Villanova @ Louisville VILL @ LOU

VILLANOVA

VILLANOVAVILL

1-2  |  Road

13
FINAL
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:00 PM ET
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISVILLE

LOUISVILLELOU

1-1  |  Home

59
Key Game
Luke Myers
KEY GAME

Luke Myers

#39 | Place kicker
@
👤
KEY GAME

Niall Hayes

#91 | Punter
Player
Luke Myers None-None
Niall Hayes None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VILLANOVA
3%
📊
LOUISVILLE
97%
VILLANOVA --
LOUISVILLE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 (Over)
Over 56.5 64%
Under 56.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+37.0
VILLANOVA
Book Spread
+37.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Villanova)
VillanovaVILL (+37.5) 0 LouisvilleLOU (-37.5)
Villanova Wildcats (+37.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Villanova Cover

99.6%

Louisville Cover

0.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around VILL +37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VILL)

VILL By 1-6 points

0.3%

VILL By 7-13 points

0.1%

LOU By 1-6 points

1.0%

LOU By 7-13 points

3.2%

AI Model Projected Score
12.5
VILLANOVA
Book Implied: 9.50
49.5
LOUISVILLE
Book Implied: 47
Simulated Score
15
VILLANOVA
Book Implied: 9.50
35
LOUISVILLE
Book Implied: 47
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Louisville Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim Louisville Win
98% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Villanova (+37.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +37.0
C
Sim Villanova (+37.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +20.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
B
Sim u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 11, 2026 VILL @ LOU 13 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +94.6% more
Louisville: 180.0 vs Villanova: 92.5
Total Yards (L5) +68.7% more
Louisville: 394.6 vs Villanova: 234.0
First Downs (L5) +35.4% more
Louisville: 20.2 vs Villanova: 14.9
Turnovers (L5) +55.8% more
Villanova: 1.3 vs Louisville: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VILL Score 12.5 13
LOU Score 49.5 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 14.9 29.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 180.0 / 92.5 260.0 / 75.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.62 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 394.6 / 234.0 635.0 / 253.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
9%TICKETS91%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +36.5 / -36.5 → +37.5 / -37.5 ↑
84%TICKETS16%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 56.5
10%TICKETS90%
20%MONEY80%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VILL
--
LOU Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 17.7 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VILL
--
LOU Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 17.7 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
VILL
--
LOU
3-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +18.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
VILL
LOU
VILL
ML
100% 3-0
50% 1-1
100% 3-0
50% 1-1
ATS
33% 1-2
50% 1-1
33% 1-2
50% 1-1
TTL
33% 1-2
50% 1-1
67% 2-1
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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