CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
69-76 | Road
2
LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
88-57 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Lodolo
#40 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tarik Skubal
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo | 3-3 | 5.08 | 1.52 | 85.0 | 69 |
| Tarik Skubal | 8-7 | 2.86 | 0.98 | 132.1 | 159 |
3-3
W-L
8-7
5.08
ERA
Ldr 2.86
1.52
WHIP
Ldr 0.98
85.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 132.1
69
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 159
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
25%
DODGERS
75%
▲ Edge: +0.20% (LAD)
REDS
27%
Book Odds: +267
DODGERS
75%
Book Odds: -302
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.4 (Over)
Over 8.0
56%
Under 8.0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)
CIN By 1-2 runs
13.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
7.8%
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
LAD By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.2
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.20
Los Angeles
5.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.20
Los Angeles
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Dodgers
Win
75% Win Prob
A
Sim
Dodgers
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Dodgers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.4
C
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
LAD @ CIN
8 - 2
Sep 16, 2026
LAD @ CIN
2 - 6
Sep 15, 2026
LAD @ CIN
4 - 0
Sep 14, 2026
LAD @ CIN
4 - 1
Sep 9, 2026
CIN @ LAD
1 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Los Angeles
LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.94
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.257
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.338
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.424
.699
OPS
▲
.762
213
▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+24.7% more
Los Angeles: 4.9
vs
Cincinnati: 3.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+20.2% more
Los Angeles: 4.9
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+6.3%
Los Angeles: 76.2%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+3.3%
Los Angeles: 33.8%
vs
Cincinnati: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.2
2
LAD Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.4 / 9.8
7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.9
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 11.4
7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
10.6 / 16.6
14.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.9 / 3.9
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +277 / -325
→
+267 / -302
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
CIN
LAD
CIN
ML
56%
92-73
55%
88-71
48%
79-87
49%
79-81
ATS
59%
98-67
54%
86-73
43%
72-94
50%
80-80
TTL
48%
77-82-6
53%
81-73-5
44%
70-90-6
54%
83-72-5
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