ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
72-74 | Road
1
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
61-85 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Quinn Mathews
#60 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Landen Roupp
#65 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Mathews | 1-2 | 4.38 | 1.58 | 24.2 | 24 |
| Landen Roupp | 8-13 | 4.17 | 1.29 | 144.2 | 137 |
1-2
W-L
8-13
4.38
ERA
Ldr 4.17
1.58
WHIP
Ldr 1.29
24.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 144.2
24
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 137
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
35%
GIANTS
65%
▲ Edge: +14.60% (SF)
CARDINALS
51%
Book Odds: -105
GIANTS
51%
Book Odds: -103
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
65%
Under 7.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
SF By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SF By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.8
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3
San Francisco
5.2
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3
San Francisco
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Giants
Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim
Giants
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
A
Sim
Giants (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
SF @ STL
6 - 5
Sep 15, 2026
SF @ STL
10 - 3
Sep 14, 2026
SF @ STL
1 - 2
Sep 9, 2026
STL @ SF
6 - 7
Sep 8, 2026
STL @ SF
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
San Francisco
SF
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.691
OPS
▲
.706
167
Home Runs
▲
178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+6.6% more
San Francisco: 178.0
vs
St. Louis: 167.0
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.2%
San Francisco: 40.0%
vs
St. Louis: 37.8%
OPS (Season)
+1.5%
San Francisco: 70.6%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.6%
San Francisco: 24.5%
vs
St. Louis: 23.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.8
1
SF Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 11.2
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.2
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.9 / 10.0
6.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 16.8
13.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.8 / 3.7
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -101 / -109
→
-105 / -103
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
STL
SF
STL
ML
49%
79-81
53%
85-74
53%
85-75
52%
84-77
ATS
62%
100-60
56%
89-70
52%
83-77
53%
85-76
TTL
55%
82-68-10
46%
68-81-10
46%
68-81-11
50%
76-75-10
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