TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
73-73 | Road
4
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
58-88 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Soriano
#40 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jack Perkins
#50 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Soriano | 11-7 | 3.52 | 1.29 | 156.0 | 151 |
| Jack Perkins | 3-10 | 6.50 | 1.54 | 98.1 | 116 |
11-7
W-L
3-10
3.52 Ldr
ERA
6.50
1.29 Ldr
WHIP
1.54
156.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
98.1
151 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
116
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
60%
ATHLETICS
40%
BLUE JAYS
64%
Book Odds: -181
ATHLETICS
40%
Book Odds: +149
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
Over 9.0
49%
Under 9.0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
17.2%
ATH By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5.2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 5.20
Athletics
3.8
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 5.20
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Blue Jays
Win
60% Win Prob
B
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Athletics (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
TOR @ ATH
0 - 2
Sep 8, 2026
TOR @ ATH
4 - 2
Sep 7, 2026
TOR @ ATH
5 - 6
Mar 29, 2026
ATH @ TOR
2 - 5
Mar 28, 2026
ATH @ TOR
7 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.692
OPS
▲
.719
152
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+85.9% more
Toronto: 1.3
vs
Athletics: 0.2
Hits (L5)
+29.5% more
Toronto: 9.8
vs
Athletics: 6.9
Walks (L5)
+27.0% more
Toronto: 3.9
vs
Athletics: 2.9
Total Bases (L5)
+20.4% more
Toronto: 15.6
vs
Athletics: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.2
4
ATH Score
3.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 9.8
6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.5
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.1 / 5.5
6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 15.6
12.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.9 / 3.9
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -209 / +171
→
-181 / +149
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATH
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
TOR
ATH
TOR
ML
59%
95-67
46%
74-87
54%
87-74
50%
80-80
ATS
52%
84-78
56%
90-71
50%
81-80
49%
79-81
TTL
54%
84-73-5
51%
80-76-5
42%
66-90-5
45%
70-85-5
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