PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
72-73 | Road
9
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
75-69 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bubba Chandler
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Burke
#59 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubba Chandler | 6-9 | 4.30 | 1.37 | 136.0 | 121 |
| Sean Burke | 8-6 | 3.20 | 1.14 | 154.2 | 167 |
6-9
W-L
8-6
4.30
ERA
Ldr 3.20
1.37
WHIP
Ldr 1.14
136.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 154.2
121
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 167
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
37%
WHITE SOX
63%
▲ Edge: +4.50% (CHW)
PIRATES
46%
Book Odds: +119
WHITE SOX
59%
Book Odds: -144
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
Over 8.5
49%
Under 8.5
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
15.0%
PIT By 3-4 runs
9.2%
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHW By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.50
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.50
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
White Sox
Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
White Sox
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 10, 2026
PIT @ CHW
2 - 0
Sep 9, 2026
PIT @ CHW
4 - 2
Sep 8, 2026
PIT @ CHW
9 - 3
Jul 20, 2025
CHW @ PIT
7 - 2
Jul 19, 2025
CHW @ PIT
10 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.734
OPS
▲
.826
186
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+92.0% more
Chicago: 1.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+66.6% more
Chicago: 15.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.3
Walks (L5)
+53.3% more
Chicago: 5.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.6
Hits (L5)
+32.9% more
Chicago: 8.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.5
9
CHW Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 6.1
6.0 / 18.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 7.4
3.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 9.3
11.0 / 27.0
Walks
5.6 / 3.6
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +116 / -139
→
+119 / -144
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
PIT
CHW
PIT
ML
49%
81-86
52%
82-77
56%
94-73
52%
85-78
ATS
59%
99-68
54%
86-73
56%
93-74
50%
81-82
TTL
58%
96-69-2
47%
72-81-6
51%
84-81-2
50%
79-78-6
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