CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
74-72 | Road
9
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
70-76 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tanner Bibee
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Young
#63 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee | 5-15 | 4.06 | 1.18 | 166.1 | 132 |
| Brandon Young | 9-3 | 3.42 | 1.31 | 137.0 | 110 |
5-15
W-L
9-3
4.06
ERA
Ldr 3.42
1.18 Ldr
WHIP
1.31
166.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
137.0
132 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
110
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
51%
ORIOLES
49%
▲ Edge: +1.80% (CLE)
GUARDIANS
49%
Book Odds: +104
ORIOLES
56%
Book Odds: -125
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
60%
Under 8.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
17.2%
BAL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
5.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3.20
Baltimore
3.8
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3.20
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
CLE @ BAL
5 - 9
Sep 8, 2026
CLE @ BAL
9 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
CLE @ BAL
4 - 6
Apr 19, 2026
BAL @ CLE
4 - 8
Apr 18, 2026
BAL @ CLE
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.696
OPS
▲
.711
162
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+64.8% more
Cleveland: 4.7
vs
Baltimore: 1.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.3% more
Cleveland: 12.5
vs
Baltimore: 10.7
Hits (L5)
+9.8% more
Cleveland: 7.7
vs
Baltimore: 6.9
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.5%
Cleveland: 23.9%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
5.2
9
BAL Score
3.8
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 7.7
6.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.7 / 12.5
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 12.1
12.0 / 18.0
Walks
1.6 / 4.7
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +143 / -175
→
+104 / -125
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
CLE
BAL
CLE
ML
53%
83-73
54%
87-74
57%
90-69
49%
80-82
ATS
61%
95-60-1
58%
93-68
57%
90-68-1
59%
95-67
TTL
54%
81-70-5
55%
88-71-2
51%
78-75-6
43%
69-90-2
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