Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Villarreal vs Deportivo Villarreal vs Deportivo

VILLARREALVILLARREAL

2-2-3  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 3:00 PM ET
Estadio de la Cerámica

DEPORTIVODEPORTIVO

2-4-1  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
VILLARREAL
61%
DRAW
21%
DEPORTIVO
18%
▲ Edge: +36.90% (Deportivo)
68% Book Odds: -215
DRAW --
15% Book Odds: +550
Book Implied: 68.30% / % / 15.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 49%
Under 2.5 51%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
DEPORTIVO
Book Goal Line
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Deportivo)
VillarrealVillarreal (-1.5) 0 DeportivoDeportivo (+1.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

62.4% / 37.6%

Shots (On Goal)

17(5) / 8(3)

Corners

7 / 1

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Deportivo +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Deportivo)

Villarreal By 1 goal

26.1%

Villarreal By 2+ goals

36.9%

Deportivo By 1 goal

11.1%

Deportivo By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 2
1
DEPORTIVO
Book Implied: 0.50
Simulated Score
2
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 2
0
DEPORTIVO
Book Implied: 0.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Villarreal Loss
48% Win Prob
B
Sim Villarreal Loss
80% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Deportivo (+1.25) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
A
Sim Villarreal (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 Villarreal vs Deportivo 2 - 3
May 12, 2018 Deportivo vs Villarreal 2 - 4
Jan 7, 2018 Villarreal vs Deportivo 1 - 1
May 14, 2017 Villarreal vs Deportivo 0 - 0
Jan 14, 2017 Deportivo vs Villarreal 0 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +50.0% more
Villarreal: 9.0 vs Deportivo: 6.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +75.0% more
Deportivo: 4.0 vs Villarreal: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Deportivo Score 1.0 3
Villarreal Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Villarreal (Home) vs Deportivo (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Villarreal Share: 66.7% Deportivo Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Villarreal
Deportivo
Villarreal
Deportivo
ML
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
29% 2-5
0% 0-7
ATS
86% 6-1
100% 7-0
29% 2-5
0% 0-7
TTL
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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