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RAYORAYO

2-2-3  |  Home

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 12:30 PM ET
Estadio Municipal de Butarque

RACINGRACING

0-0  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
RAYO
35%
DRAW
31%
RACING
35%
▲ Edge: +24.70% (Racing Santander)
50% Book Odds: -101
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +266
25% Book Odds: +296
Book Implied: 50.20% / 27.30% / 25.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 3.0 42%
Under 3.0 58%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
RACING
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Racing)
RayoRayo (-0.5) 0 RacingRacing (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

48.7% / 51.3%

Shots (On Goal)

16(10) / 9(4)

Corners

9 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

3/2 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Racing Santander 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Racing Santander)

Rayo Vallecano By 1 goal

21.1%

Rayo Vallecano By 2+ goals

15.9%

Racing Santander By 1 goal

21.1%

Racing Santander By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
RAYO
Book Implied: 1.80
1
RACING
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
1
RAYO
Book Implied: 1.80
0
RACING
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
41% Win Prob
C
Sim Rayo Vallecano Win
54% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Racing Santander (+0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Rayo Vallecano (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 1.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 Rayo vs Racing 3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +300.0% more
Racing: 1.0 vs Rayo: 4.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Racing: 2.0 vs Rayo: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5) +150.0% more
Racing: 10.0 vs Rayo: 4.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Racing: 2.0 vs Rayo: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Racing Santander Score 1.0 2
Rayo Vallecano Score 1.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Rayo Vallecano (Home) vs Racing Santander (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Rayo Vallecano Share: 50.0% Racing Santander Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Rayo Vallecano
Racing Santander
Rayo Vallecano
Racing Santander
ML
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
ATS
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
TTL
33% 2-4-1
43% 3-4
33% 2-4-1
38% 2-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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