ATHLETICATHLETIC
2-2-2 | Home
3
ATLÉTICOATLÉTICO
5-1-1 | Away
0
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETIC
35%
DRAW
31%
ATLÉTICO
35%
▲ Edge: +12.70% (Atlético Madrid)
35%
Book Odds: +183
DRAW
30%
Book Odds: +232
37%
Book Odds: +168
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
ATLÉTICO
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
38.4% / 61.6%
Shots (On Goal)
11(4) / 15(5)
Corners
3 / 8
Cards (Y/R)
0/0 - 1/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Atlético Madrid 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlético Madrid)
Athletic Club By 1 goal
21.1%
Athletic Club By 2+ goals
15.9%
Atlético Madrid By 1 goal
21.1%
Atlético Madrid By 2+ goals
15.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletic
1
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 1.20
Atlético
1
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
Athletic
0
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 1.20
Atlético
1
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Athletic Club
Loss
35% Win Prob
D
Sim
Atlético Madrid
Loss
54% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Athletic Club (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
A
Sim
Atlético Madrid (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u2.5
Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim
u2.5
Loss
Proj Total: 1.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 5, 2026
Athletic vs Atlético
3 - 0
Dec 6, 2025
Athletic vs Atlético
1 - 0
Mar 1, 2025
Atlético vs Athletic
1 - 0
Aug 31, 2024
Athletic vs Atlético
0 - 1
Apr 27, 2024
Atlético vs Athletic
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5)
+300.0% more
Atlético: 1.0
vs
Athletic: 4.0
Wins (L5)
+200.0% more
Atlético: 3.0
vs
Athletic: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5)
+150.0% more
Atlético: 10.0
vs
Athletic: 4.0
Draws (L5)
+100.0% more
Atlético: 1.0
vs
Athletic: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Atlético Madrid Score
1.0
0
Athletic Club Score
1.0
3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Athletic Club (Home)
vs
Atlético Madrid (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Athletic Club
Atlético Madrid
Athletic Club
Atlético Madrid
ML
83%
5-1
57%
4-3
17%
1-5
29%
2-5
ATS
67%
4-2
43%
3-4
33%
2-4
43%
3-4
TTL
67%
4-2
43%
3-4
67%
4-2
43%
3-4