Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Betis vs Real Madrid Betis vs Real Madrid

BETISBETIS

5-1-1  |  Home

1
FINAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 3:00 PM ET
Estadio La Cartuja

REAL MADRIDREAL MADRID

5-0-2  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
BETIS
18%
DRAW
21%
REAL MADRID
61%
▲ Edge: +30.40% (Real Betis)
16% Book Odds: +515
DRAW 19% Book Odds: +430
68% Book Odds: -210
Book Implied: 16.30% / 18.90% / 67.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 3.5 26%
Under 3.5 74%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
BETIS
Book Goal Line
+1.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Betis)
BetisBetis (+1.2) 0 Real MadridReal Madrid (-1.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

41.5% / 58.5%

Shots (On Goal)

10(5) / 20(8)

Corners

6 / 10

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Real Betis +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Real Betis)

Real Betis By 1 goal

11.1%

Real Betis By 2+ goals

4.8%

Real Madrid By 1 goal

26.1%

Real Madrid By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
BETIS
Book Implied: 1.10
2
REAL MADRID
Book Implied: 2.40
Simulated Score
1
BETIS
Book Implied: 1.10
3
REAL MADRID
Book Implied: 2.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Real Madrid Loss
53% Win Prob
A
Sim Real Madrid Loss
83% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Real Betis (+1.25) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
A
Sim Real Madrid (-1.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Sim o3.5 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 4, 2026 Betis vs Real Madrid 1 - 0
Apr 24, 2026 Betis vs Real Madrid 1 - 1
Jan 4, 2026 Real Madrid vs Betis 5 - 1
Mar 1, 2025 Betis vs Real Madrid 2 - 1
Sep 1, 2024 Real Madrid vs Betis 2 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +300.0% more
Real Madrid: 2.0 vs Betis: 8.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Real Madrid: 0.0 vs Betis: 2.0
Wins (L5) +150.0% more
Real Madrid: 5.0 vs Betis: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +133.3% more
Real Madrid: 14.0 vs Betis: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Real Madrid Score 2.0 0
Real Betis Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Real Betis (Home) vs Real Madrid (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Real Betis Share: 33.3% Real Madrid Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Real Betis
Real Madrid
Real Betis
Real Madrid
ML
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
14% 1-6
71% 5-2
ATS
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
TTL
71% 5-2
67% 4-2-1
43% 3-4
67% 4-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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