Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo

REAL SOCIEDADREAL SOCIEDAD

1-0-2  |  Home

0
FINAL
Thu, Sep 3 • 3:00 PM ET
Reale Arena

CELTA VIGOCELTA VIGO

0-1-2  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
REAL SOCIEDAD
61%
DRAW
21%
CELTA VIGO
18%
▲ Edge: +25.50% (Celta Vigo)
56% Book Odds: -125
DRAW --
22% Book Odds: +350
Book Implied: 55.60% / % / 22.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 53%
Under 2.5 47%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Real Sociedad)
Real SociedadReal Sociedad (-0.5) 0 Celta VigoCelta Vigo (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

50.9% / 49.1%

Shots (On Goal)

16(5) / 7(2)

Corners

11 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Real Sociedad -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Real Sociedad)

Real Sociedad By 1 goal

26.1%

Real Sociedad By 2+ goals

36.9%

Celta Vigo By 1 goal

11.1%

Celta Vigo By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Implied: 1.50
1
CELTA VIGO
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
1
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Implied: 1.50
0
CELTA VIGO
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Real Sociedad Loss
52% Win Prob
A
Sim Real Sociedad Loss
54% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Real Sociedad (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Real Sociedad (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u2.8 Win
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo 0 - 0
Jan 25, 2026 Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo 3 - 1
Oct 19, 2025 Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad 1 - 1
May 13, 2025 Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo 0 - 1
Dec 21, 2024 Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad 2 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +66.7% more
Real Sociedad: 5.0 vs Celta Vigo: 3.0
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Celta Vigo: 2.0 vs Real Sociedad: 0.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +120.0% more
Celta Vigo: 5.0 vs Real Sociedad: 11.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Celta Vigo: 2.0 vs Real Sociedad: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Celta Vigo Score 1.0 0
Real Sociedad Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Real Sociedad (Home) vs Celta Vigo (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Real Sociedad Share: 66.7% Celta Vigo Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Real Sociedad
Celta Vigo
Real Sociedad
Celta Vigo
ML
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
ATS
0% 0-4
29% 1-2
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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