Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Hull vs Aston Villa Hull vs Aston Villa

HULLHULL

2-2-1  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 12:30 PM ET
The MKM Stadium

ASTON VILLAASTON VILLA

1-1-3  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
HULL
35%
DRAW
31%
ASTON VILLA
35%
▲ Edge: +26.40% (Hull City)
24% Book Odds: +324
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +280
52% Book Odds: -110
Book Implied: 23.60% / 26.30% / 52.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 37%
Under 2.5 63%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
HULL
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Hull)
HullHull (+0.5) 0 Aston VillaAston Villa (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

26.5% / 73.5%

Shots (On Goal)

11(4) / 13(1)

Corners

3 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 0/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Hull City 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Hull City)

Hull City By 1 goal

21.1%

Hull City By 2+ goals

15.9%

Aston Villa By 1 goal

21.1%

Aston Villa By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
HULL
Book Implied: 1
1
ASTON VILLA
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
HULL
Book Implied: 1
2
ASTON VILLA
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Win
39% Win Prob
D
Sim Aston Villa Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hull City (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Aston Villa (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
A
Sim o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 Hull vs Aston Villa 0 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +400.0% more
Hull: 1.0 vs Aston Villa: 5.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +266.7% more
Hull: 3.0 vs Aston Villa: 11.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Hull: 2.0 vs Aston Villa: 0.0
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Hull: 2.0 vs Aston Villa: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Aston Villa Score 1.0 0
Hull City Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Hull City (Home) vs Aston Villa (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Hull City Share: 50.0% Aston Villa Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Hull City
Aston Villa
Hull City
Aston Villa
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
ATS
100% 4-0-1
100% 4-0-1
25% 1-3-1
50% 2-2-1
TTL
67% 3-1
60% 3-2
25% 1-3-1
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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