BRIGHTONBRIGHTON
3-1-1 | Home
1
LEEDSLEEDS
2-3-0 | Away
1
AI Model Win Probability
BRIGHTON
61%
DRAW
21%
LEEDS
18%
▲ Edge: +6.20% (Leeds United)
51%
Book Odds: -103
DRAW
27%
Book Odds: +268
25%
Book Odds: +302
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75
57%
Under 2.75
43%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
BRIGHTON
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Brighton)
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
66.8% / 33.2%
Shots (On Goal)
20(5) / 10(5)
Corners
7 / 6
Cards (Y/R)
3/0 - 3/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Brighton & Hove Albion -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Brighton & Hove Albion)
Brighton & Hove Albion By 1 goal
26.1%
Brighton & Hove Albion By 2+ goals
36.9%
Leeds United By 1 goal
11.1%
Leeds United By 2+ goals
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Brighton
2
BRIGHTON
Book Implied: 1.60
Leeds
1
LEEDS
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
Brighton
2
BRIGHTON
Book Implied: 1.60
Leeds
1
LEEDS
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brighton & Hove Albion
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Sim
Brighton & Hove Albion
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brighton & Hove Albion (-0.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Sim
Brighton & Hove Albion (-0.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o2.75
Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Sim
o2.8
Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 5, 2026
Brighton vs Leeds
1 - 1
Nov 1, 2025
Brighton vs Leeds
3 - 0
Mar 11, 2023
Leeds vs Brighton
2 - 2
Aug 27, 2022
Brighton vs Leeds
1 - 0
May 15, 2022
Leeds vs Brighton
1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5)
+33.3% more
Brighton: 12.0
vs
Leeds: 9.0
Goals Conceded (L5)
+100.0% more
Leeds: 2.0
vs
Brighton: 4.0
Draws (L5)
+100.0% more
Leeds: 2.0
vs
Brighton: 1.0
Losses (L5)
+100.0% more
Leeds: 0.0
vs
Brighton: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Leeds United Score
1.0
1
Brighton & Hove Albion Score
2.0
1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Brighton & Hove Albion (Home)
vs
Leeds United (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Brighton & Hove Albion
Leeds United
Brighton & Hove Albion
Leeds United
ML
40%
2-3
40%
2-3
40%
2-3
20%
1-4
ATS
40%
2-3
0%
0-4-1
60%
3-2
25%
1-3-1
TTL
56%
2-2
20%
1-4
56%
2-2
60%
3-2