Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Brentford vs Sunderland Brentford vs Sunderland

BRENTFORDBRENTFORD

2-3-0  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 10:00 AM ET
Gtech Community Stadium

SUNDERLANDSUNDERLAND

1-1-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
BRENTFORD
61%
DRAW
21%
SUNDERLAND
18%
▲ Edge: +30% (Sunderland)
58% Book Odds: -136
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +287
20% Book Odds: +404
Book Implied: 57.60% / 25.80% / 19.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 55%
Under 2.5 45%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
BRENTFORD
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Brentford)
BrentfordBrentford (-0.8) 0 SunderlandSunderland (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

49.0% / 51.0%

Shots (On Goal)

12(2) / 14(5)

Corners

4 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Brentford -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Brentford)

Brentford By 1 goal

26.1%

Brentford By 2+ goals

36.9%

Sunderland By 1 goal

11.1%

Sunderland By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
BRENTFORD
Book Implied: 1.60
1
SUNDERLAND
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
2
BRENTFORD
Book Implied: 1.60
0
SUNDERLAND
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Brentford Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Sim Brentford Loss
80% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Brentford (-0.75) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Brentford (-0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 Brentford vs Sunderland 1 - 1
Jan 7, 2026 Brentford vs Sunderland 3 - 0
Aug 30, 2025 Sunderland vs Brentford 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +200.0% more
Brentford: 21.0 vs Sunderland: 7.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Brentford: 1.0 vs Sunderland: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Brentford: 0.0 vs Sunderland: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +33.3% more
Sunderland: 3.0 vs Brentford: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Sunderland Score 1.0 1
Brentford Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Brentford (Home) vs Sunderland (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Brentford Share: 66.7% Sunderland Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Brentford
Sunderland
Brentford
Sunderland
ML
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
ATS
71% 2-1-1
60% 3-2
14% 0-3-1
60% 3-2
TTL
56% 2-2
22% 1-3
78% 3-1
78% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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