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NEWCASTLENEWCASTLE

2-2-1  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:30 AM ET
St. James' Park

BOURNEMOUTHBOURNEMOUTH

0-3-2  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
NEWCASTLE
61%
DRAW
21%
BOURNEMOUTH
18%
▲ Edge: +22.60% (AFC Bournemouth)
45% Book Odds: +121
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +265
30% Book Odds: +233
Book Implied: 45.20% / 27.40% / 30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 57%
Under 3.0 43%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
NEWCASTLE
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Newcastle)
NewcastleNewcastle (-0.2) 0 BournemouthBournemouth (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

57.3% / 42.7%

Shots (On Goal)

8(2) / 17(5)

Corners

4 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Newcastle United -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Newcastle United)

Newcastle United By 1 goal

26.1%

Newcastle United By 2+ goals

36.9%

AFC Bournemouth By 1 goal

11.1%

AFC Bournemouth By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
NEWCASTLE
Book Implied: 1.60
1
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
2
NEWCASTLE
Book Implied: 1.60
1
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Newcastle United Loss
47% Win Prob
C
Sim Newcastle United Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Newcastle United (-0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Newcastle United (-0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 Newcastle vs Bournemouth 2 - 2
Sep 21, 2025 Bournemouth vs Newcastle 0 - 0
Jan 18, 2025 Newcastle vs Bournemouth 1 - 4
Aug 25, 2024 Bournemouth vs Newcastle 1 - 1
Feb 17, 2024 Newcastle vs Bournemouth 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Newcastle: 2.0 vs Bournemouth: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Newcastle: 1.0 vs Bournemouth: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +50.0% more
Newcastle: 9.0 vs Bournemouth: 6.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +14.3% more
Newcastle: 7.0 vs Bournemouth: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AFC Bournemouth Score 1.0 2
Newcastle United Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Newcastle United (Home) vs AFC Bournemouth (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Newcastle United Share: 66.7% AFC Bournemouth Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Newcastle United
AFC Bournemouth
Newcastle United
AFC Bournemouth
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
ATS
29% 1-2-1
88% 3-0-1
29% 1-2-1
38% 1-2-1
TTL
67% 3-1
75% 3-1-1
25% 1-3-1
50% 2-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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