TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
72-73 | Road
5
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
58-87 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Cease
#84 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Lopez
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | 10-5 | 2.25 | 1.04 | 156.1 | 221 |
| Jacob Lopez | 6-4 | 4.71 | 1.46 | 105.0 | 103 |
10-5
W-L
6-4
2.25 Ldr
ERA
4.71
1.04 Ldr
WHIP
1.46
156.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
105.0
221 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
103
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
61%
ATHLETICS
39%
▲ Edge: +2.80% (ATH)
BLUE JAYS
69%
Book Odds: -217
ATHLETICS
36%
Book Odds: +177
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
55%
Under 8.0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
17.2%
ATH By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5.2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.80
Athletics
3.8
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.80
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
A
Sim
Athletics (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
TOR @ ATH
0 - 2
Sep 8, 2026
TOR @ ATH
4 - 2
Sep 7, 2026
TOR @ ATH
5 - 6
Mar 29, 2026
ATH @ TOR
2 - 5
Mar 28, 2026
ATH @ TOR
7 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.692
OPS
▲
.719
152
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+47.9% more
Toronto: 4.4
vs
Athletics: 2.3
Hits (L5)
+27.9% more
Toronto: 10.3
vs
Athletics: 7.4
Errors (L5)
+14.0% more
Toronto: 0.4
vs
Athletics: 0.3
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.2%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Athletics: 24.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.2
5
ATH Score
3.8
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
0.0 / 3.0
Hits
7.4 / 10.3
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.7
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
10.1 / 6.2
10.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 13.9
10.0 / 19.0
Walks
2.3 / 4.4
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113
→
-217 / +177
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATH
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
TOR
ATH
TOR
ML
59%
95-67
46%
74-87
54%
87-74
50%
80-80
ATS
52%
84-78
56%
90-71
50%
81-80
49%
79-81
TTL
54%
84-73-5
51%
80-76-5
42%
66-90-5
45%
70-85-5
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