Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Giants STL @ SF

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

72-73  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Sep 7 • 8:10 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

60-85  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Michael McGreevy
STARTING PITCHER

Michael McGreevy

#36 | Starting Pitcher
@
Logan Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Webb

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael McGreevy 6-9 3.97 1.26 147.1 102
Logan Webb 8-8 4.21 1.16 149.2 119
6-9 W-L 8-8
3.97 Ldr ERA 4.21
1.26 WHIP Ldr 1.16
147.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 149.2
102 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 119
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
39%
📊
GIANTS
61%
▲ Edge: +4.80% (SF)
CARDINALS 48% Book Odds: +109
GIANTS 57% Book Odds: -131
Book Implied: 47.80% / 56.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 60%
Under 8.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (St. Louis)
CardinalsSTL (+1.5) 0 GiantsSF (-1.5)
St. Louis Cardinals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

63.7%

Giants Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

STL By 1-2 runs

15.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

9.5%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SF By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.20
5.2
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.20
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Giants Win
61% Win Prob
B
Sim Giants Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim Giants (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 SF @ STL 6 - 5
Sep 15, 2026 SF @ STL 10 - 3
Sep 14, 2026 SF @ STL 1 - 2
Sep 9, 2026 STL @ SF 6 - 7
Sep 8, 2026 STL @ SF 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.313 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.691
OPS
▲ .706
167
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +28.9% more
San Francisco: 1.7 vs St. Louis: 1.4
Home Runs (Season) +6.6% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
Slugging Pct (Season) +2.2%
San Francisco: 40.0% vs St. Louis: 37.8%
OPS (Season) +1.5%
San Francisco: 70.6% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.8 4
SF Score 5.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.7 / 12.2 10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.8 / 9.5 6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 14.1 / 18.7 13.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.0 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +161 / -196 → +109 / -131 ↓
46%TICKETS54%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
50%TICKETS50%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 8 ↑
89%TICKETS11%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
STL
SF
STL
ML
49% 79-81
53% 85-74
53% 85-75
52% 84-77
ATS
62% 100-60
56% 89-70
52% 83-77
53% 85-76
TTL
55% 82-68-10
46% 68-81-10
46% 68-81-11
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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