MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
68-76 | Road
4
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
66-78 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Joe Ryan
#41 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Troy Melton
#52 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan | 6-8 | 3.65 | 1.14 | 125.2 | 138 |
| Troy Melton | 7-4 | 2.20 | 1.03 | 102.1 | 84 |
6-8
W-L
7-4
3.65
ERA
Ldr 2.20
1.14
WHIP
Ldr 1.03
125.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
102.1
138 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
84
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
33%
TIGERS
67%
▲ Edge: +11.70% (DET)
TWINS
50%
Book Odds: +102
TIGERS
55%
Book Odds: -123
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
64%
Under 8.0
36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-2 runs
15.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
9.5%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3.8
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Detroit
5.2
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Tigers
Win
67% Win Prob
A
Sim
Tigers
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Tigers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
MIN @ DET
2 - 7
Sep 8, 2026
MIN @ DET
3 - 2
Sep 7, 2026
MIN @ DET
4 - 5
Sep 2, 2026
DET @ MIN
11 - 6
Sep 1, 2026
DET @ MIN
2 - 15
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
OPS
.720
187
▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+21.0% more
Detroit: 0.4
vs
Minnesota: 0.2
Hits (L5)
+10.6% more
Detroit: 7.9
vs
Minnesota: 7.2
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.3%
Detroit: 32.0%
vs
Minnesota: 31.7%
Home Runs (L5)
+35.9% more
Minnesota: 1.2
vs
Detroit: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.8
4
DET Score
5.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 7.2
8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.2
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 11.5
12.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 12.3
16.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.3 / 2.2
1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +128 / -155
→
+102 / -123
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
MIN
DET
MIN
ML
54%
86-73
52%
84-78
54%
87-73
50%
80-81
ATS
64%
101-58
59%
95-67
57%
91-69
59%
95-66
TTL
46%
69-81-9
51%
78-75-9
46%
69-81-10
53%
80-72-9
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