Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Brewers CHC @ MIL

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

81-64  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Sep 7 • 2:10 PM ET
American Family Field
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

89-56  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Matthew Boyd
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Boyd

#16 | Starting Pitcher
@
Robert Gasser
STARTING PITCHER

Robert Gasser

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matthew Boyd 8-3 4.05 1.23 102.1 79
Robert Gasser 4-5 4.57 1.29 86.2 82
8-3 W-L 4-5
4.05 Ldr ERA 4.57
1.23 Ldr WHIP 1.29
102.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 86.2
79 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 82
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
43%
📊
BREWERS
57%
▲ Edge: +1.60% (MIL)
CUBS 49% Book Odds: +104
BREWERS 56% Book Odds: -126
Book Implied: 49% / 55.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 56%
Under 8.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (+1.5) 0 BrewersMIL (-1.5)
Chicago Cubs (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

63.7%

Brewers Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

15.3%

CHC By 3-4 runs

9.5%

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIL By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
5.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
7
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
6
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brewers Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Cubs Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 CHC @ MIL 6 - 8
Sep 8, 2026 CHC @ MIL 3 - 4
Sep 7, 2026 CHC @ MIL 3 - 4
Sep 3, 2026 MIL @ CHC 1 - 2
Sep 2, 2026 MIL @ CHC 9 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Milwaukee MIL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 5.14
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .341
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.374
OPS
▲ .743
0
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +15400.0% more
Milwaukee: 154.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +464.0% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5) +72.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.8 vs Chicago: 0.1
Walks (L5) +54.5% more
Milwaukee: 5.9 vs Chicago: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 3.8 3
MIL Score 5.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.7 / 8.8 6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 6.7 6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 14.2 / 14.4 7.0 / 13.0
Walks 5.9 / 3.8 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -149 / +123 → +104 / -126 ↑
38%TICKETS62%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
43%TICKETS57%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
84%TICKETS16%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
CHC
MIL
CHC
ML
62% 101-61
58% 93-68
52% 84-78
51% 82-79
ATS
58% 94-68
61% 97-63-1
48% 78-84
47% 75-85-1
TTL
40% 62-92-8
52% 81-74-6
50% 77-77-8
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 42 minutes ago
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 42 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 53 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 1 hour ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 6 hours, 49 minutes ago