CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
73-72 | Road
4
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
70-75 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Joey Cantillo
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Rogers
#28 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Cantillo | 9-8 | 3.81 | 1.48 | 141.2 | 151 |
| Trevor Rogers | 9-9 | 4.30 | 1.23 | 144.1 | 132 |
9-8
W-L
9-9
3.81 Ldr
ERA
4.30
1.48
WHIP
Ldr 1.23
141.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 144.1
151 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
132
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
44%
ORIOLES
56%
GUARDIANS
46%
Book Odds: +118
ORIOLES
59%
Book Odds: -142
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
70%
Under 7.0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
9.5%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.8
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 2.80
Baltimore
5.2
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 2.80
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
56% Win Prob
C
Sim
Orioles
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
B
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
CLE @ BAL
5 - 9
Sep 8, 2026
CLE @ BAL
9 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
CLE @ BAL
4 - 6
Apr 19, 2026
BAL @ CLE
4 - 8
Apr 18, 2026
BAL @ CLE
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.696
OPS
▲
.711
162
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+22.8% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Errors (L5)
+20.0% more
Baltimore: 0.8
vs
Cleveland: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.4% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.6%
Baltimore: 39.6%
vs
Cleveland: 38.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.8
4
BAL Score
5.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.9 / 7.0
9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.9
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
13.0 / 13.2
6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
9.2 / 11.6
16.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.5
0.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -120 / +100
→
+118 / -142
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
CLE
BAL
CLE
ML
53%
83-73
54%
87-74
57%
90-69
49%
80-82
ATS
61%
95-60-1
58%
93-68
57%
90-68-1
59%
95-67
TTL
54%
81-70-5
55%
88-71-2
51%
78-75-6
43%
69-90-2
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