ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
85-59 | Road
0
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
81-63 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Holmes
#66 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jesus Luzardo
#44 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Holmes | 9-5 | 3.62 | 1.31 | 131.2 | 104 |
| Jesus Luzardo | 13-5 | 3.02 | 1.12 | 169.2 | 209 |
9-5
W-L
13-5
3.62
ERA
Ldr 3.02
1.31
WHIP
Ldr 1.12
131.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 169.2
104
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 209
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
34%
PHILLIES
66%
▲ Edge: +0.30% (PHI)
BRAVES
39%
Book Odds: +157
PHILLIES
66%
Book Odds: -191
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
60%
Under 8.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ATLANTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3.8
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Philadelphia
5.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim
Phillies
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026
PHI @ ATL
4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026
PHI @ ATL
9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
1
Games Played
▲
2
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.433
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.757
▲
OPS
.724
1
Home Runs
▲
3
Key Model Drivers
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.4%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Atlanta: 43.3%
Runs per Game (Season)
+30.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Total Bases (L5)
+15.6% more
Atlanta: 15.3
vs
Philadelphia: 12.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.8
0
PHI Score
5.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 8.5
4.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 8.4
12.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 15.3
8.0 / 2.0
Walks
2.1 / 2.3
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +119 / -143
→
+157 / -191
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
ATL
PHI
ATL
ML
59%
97-67
46%
77-90
49%
80-84
54%
90-78
ATS
65%
107-57
57%
96-71
51%
83-81
52%
87-81
TTL
57%
88-67-9
53%
83-73-11
51%
78-76-9
49%
76-80-11
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