Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Barcelona vs Rayo Barcelona vs Rayo

BARCELONABARCELONA

3-0-0  |  Home

5
FINAL
Mon, Aug 31 • 3:30 PM ET
Spotify Camp Nou

RAYORAYO

0-1-2  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
BARCELONA
78%
DRAW
13%
RAYO
9%
▲ Edge: +12.20% (Rayo Vallecano)
91% Book Odds: -1000
DRAW --
4% Book Odds: +2200
Book Implied: 90.90% / % / 4.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
4.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 4.5 46%
Under 4.5 54%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+2.0
RAYO
Book Goal Line
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Rayo)
BarcelonaBarcelona (-2.5) 0 RayoRayo (+2.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

68.6% / 31.4%

Shots (On Goal)

26(9) / 11(5)

Corners

9 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

90.9%

Cover

9.1%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Rayo Vallecano +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Rayo Vallecano)

Barcelona By 1 goal

21.1%

Barcelona By 2+ goals

63.1%

Rayo Vallecano By 1 goal

3.8%

Rayo Vallecano By 2+ goals

1.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3
BARCELONA
Book Implied: 3.50
1
RAYO
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
4
BARCELONA
Book Implied: 3.50
0
RAYO
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Barcelona Win
84% Win Prob
A
Sim Barcelona Win
99% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rayo Vallecano (+2.75) Loss
Proj Goals: +2.0
C
Sim Barcelona (-2.75) Win
Proj Goals: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u4.0 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
B
Sim u4.0 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 31, 2026 Barcelona vs Rayo 5 - 2
Mar 22, 2026 Barcelona vs Rayo 1 - 0
Aug 31, 2025 Rayo vs Barcelona 1 - 1
Feb 17, 2025 Barcelona vs Rayo 1 - 0
Aug 27, 2024 Rayo vs Barcelona 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +300.0% more
Barcelona: 16.0 vs Rayo: 4.0
Wins (L5) +300.0% more
Barcelona: 4.0 vs Rayo: 1.0
Losses (L5) +300.0% more
Barcelona: 0.0 vs Rayo: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +60.0% more
Barcelona: 5.0 vs Rayo: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Rayo Vallecano Score 1.0 2
Barcelona Score 3.0 5
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 77.5% Draw: 13.1% Away Win: 9.4%
Barcelona (Home) vs Rayo Vallecano (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 76.2% Under 2.5: 23.8%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Barcelona Share: 75.0% Rayo Vallecano Share: 25.0%
AI Projected Score 3.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Barcelona
Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona
Rayo Vallecano
ML
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-3
0% 0-3
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
TTL
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
50% 1-1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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