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ASTON VILLAASTON VILLA

1-1-3  |  Home

0
FINAL
Mon, Aug 31 • 3:00 PM ET
Villa Park

ARSENALARSENAL

4-0-1  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTON VILLA
18%
DRAW
21%
ARSENAL
61%
▲ Edge: +35.80% (Aston Villa)
14% Book Odds: +625
DRAW 22% Book Odds: +365
68% Book Odds: -210
Book Implied: 13.80% / 21.50% / 67.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 54%
Under 2.75 46%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
ASTON VILLA
Book Goal Line
+1
Book Line
Aston VillaAston Villa (+1) 0 ArsenalArsenal (-1)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

39.2% / 60.8%

Shots (On Goal)

7(0) / 7(2)

Corners

2 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Aston Villa +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Aston Villa)

Aston Villa By 1 goal

11.1%

Aston Villa By 2+ goals

4.8%

Arsenal By 1 goal

26.1%

Arsenal By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ASTON VILLA
Book Implied: 0.90
2
ARSENAL
Book Implied: 1.90
Simulated Score
1
ASTON VILLA
Book Implied: 0.90
2
ARSENAL
Book Implied: 1.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Arsenal Win
50% Win Prob
B
Sim Arsenal Win
62% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Aston Villa (-1) Push
Proj Goals: +1.0
A
Sim Aston Villa (+1) Push
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 31, 2026 Aston Villa vs Arsenal 0 - 1
Dec 30, 2025 Arsenal vs Aston Villa 4 - 1
Dec 6, 2025 Aston Villa vs Arsenal 2 - 1
Jan 18, 2025 Arsenal vs Aston Villa 2 - 2
Aug 24, 2024 Aston Villa vs Arsenal 0 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +100.0% more
Arsenal: 10.0 vs Aston Villa: 5.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Arsenal: 2.0 vs Aston Villa: 1.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Arsenal: 1.0 vs Aston Villa: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Arsenal: 2.0 vs Aston Villa: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Arsenal Score 2.0 1
Aston Villa Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Aston Villa (Home) vs Arsenal (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Aston Villa Share: 33.3% Arsenal Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Aston Villa
Arsenal
Aston Villa
Arsenal
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
ATS
100% 4-0-1
25% 1-3-1
50% 2-2-1
71% 2-1-1
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 1-1-2
20% 1-4
60% 1-1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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