Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Tigres vs Necaxa Tigres vs Necaxa

TIGRESTIGRES

2-4-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Universitario

NECAXANECAXA

2-2-6  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
TIGRES
61%
DRAW
21%
NECAXA
18%
▲ Edge: +35% (Necaxa)
59% Book Odds: -146
DRAW 25% Book Odds: +301
19% Book Odds: +416
Book Implied: 59.30% / 24.90% / 19.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 51%
Under 2.75 49%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
TIGRES
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Tigres)
TigresTigres (-0.8) 0 NecaxaNecaxa (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

58.1% / 41.9%

Shots (On Goal)

21(6) / 17(4)

Corners

6 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Tigres UANL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Tigres UANL)

Tigres UANL By 1 goal

26.1%

Tigres UANL By 2+ goals

36.9%

Necaxa By 1 goal

11.1%

Necaxa By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.80
1
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.80
0
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigres UANL Loss
46% Win Prob
C
Sim Tigres UANL Loss
80% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigres UANL (-0.75) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Tigres UANL (-0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u2.8 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 Tigres vs Necaxa 1 - 1
Apr 18, 2026 Necaxa vs Tigres 1 - 1
Feb 20, 2026 Tigres vs Necaxa 1 - 2
Oct 22, 2025 Necaxa vs Tigres 1 - 2
Oct 17, 2025 Tigres vs Necaxa 5 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +133.3% more
Tigres: 3.0 vs Necaxa: 7.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Tigres: 2.0 vs Necaxa: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Tigres: 1.0 vs Necaxa: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +25.0% more
Necaxa: 5.0 vs Tigres: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Necaxa Score 1.0 1
Tigres UANL Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Tigres UANL (Home) vs Necaxa (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Tigres UANL Share: 66.7% Necaxa Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Tigres UANL
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
Necaxa
ML
40% 4-6
40% 4-6
10% 1-9
50% 5-5
ATS
72% 6-2-1
60% 6-4
29% 2-6-1
60% 6-4
TTL
30% 3-7
60% 6-4
50% 5-5
90% 9-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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