Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / América vs Tijuana América vs Tijuana

AMÉRICAAMÉRICA

8-3-2  |  Home

1
FINAL
Wed, Oct 28 • 11:00 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

TIJUANATIJUANA

5-5-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
AMÉRICA
61%
DRAW
21%
TIJUANA
18%
▲ Edge: +14.80% (Tijuana)
63% Book Odds: -173
DRAW 22% Book Odds: +353
18% Book Odds: +455
Book Implied: 63.40% / 22.10% / 18%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 57%
Under 3.0 43%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
TIJUANA
Book Goal Line
+1
Book Line
AméricaAmérica (-1) 0 TijuanaTijuana (+1)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

72.4% / 27.6%

Shots (On Goal)

28(8) / 6(2)

Corners

9 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 4/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Tijuana +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Tijuana)

América By 1 goal

26.1%

América By 2+ goals

36.9%

Tijuana By 1 goal

11.1%

Tijuana By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 2
1
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 2
0
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI América
67% Win Prob
B
Sim América
80% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tijuana (+1)
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Sim América (-1)
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0
Proj Total: 2.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 28, 2026 América vs Tijuana 1 - 1
Feb 14, 2026 Tijuana vs América 1 - 0
Jan 9, 2026 Tijuana vs América 0 - 0
Sep 13, 2025 América vs Tijuana 1 - 2
Jul 16, 2025 América vs Tijuana 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
América: 2.0 vs Tijuana: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +71.4% more
América: 12.0 vs Tijuana: 7.0
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Tijuana: 3.0 vs América: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +100.0% more
Tijuana: 4.0 vs América: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Tijuana Score 1.0 1
América Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
América (Home) vs Tijuana (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
América Share: 66.7% Tijuana Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
América
Tijuana
América
Tijuana
ML
46% 6-7
15% 2-11
69% 9-4
46% 6-7
ATS
58% 7-5-1
73% 8-3-2
82% 9-2-2
55% 6-5-2
TTL
50% 6-6-1
46% 6-7
75% 9-3-1
42% 5-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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