Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Queretaro vs Monterrey Queretaro vs Monterrey

QUERETAROQUERETARO

6-2-7  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Nov 14 • 6:00 PM ET
Estadio Corregidora

MONTERREYMONTERREY

6-3-6  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
QUERETARO
18%
DRAW
21%
MONTERREY
61%
▲ Edge: +28.50% (Querétaro)
26% Book Odds: +284
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +266
50% Book Odds: +101
Book Implied: 26% / 27.30% / 49.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 61%
Under 2.5 39%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
MONTERREY
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Monterrey)
QueretaroQueretaro (+0.5) 0 MonterreyMonterrey (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

27.5% / 72.5%

Shots (On Goal)

12(2) / 16(5)

Corners

4 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

4/2 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Monterrey -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Monterrey)

Querétaro By 1 goal

11.1%

Querétaro By 2+ goals

4.8%

Monterrey By 1 goal

26.1%

Monterrey By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1
2
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1
2
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Monterrey Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Monterrey Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Monterrey (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Monterrey (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 14, 2026 Queretaro vs Monterrey 0 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +200.0% more
Monterrey: 9.0 vs Queretaro: 3.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Monterrey: 2.0 vs Queretaro: 0.0
Losses (L5) +150.0% more
Monterrey: 2.0 vs Queretaro: 5.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Monterrey: 1.0 vs Queretaro: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Monterrey Score 2.0 1
Querétaro Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Querétaro (Home) vs Monterrey (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Querétaro Share: 33.3% Monterrey Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Querétaro
Monterrey
Querétaro
Monterrey
ML
46% 6-7
31% 4-9
38% 5-8
38% 5-8
ATS
58% 7-5-1
46% 5-6-1
42% 5-7-1
42% 5-7-1
TTL
57% 6-5-1
50% 6-6-1
48% 5-6-1
42% 5-7-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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