Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Juárez vs Pachuca Juárez vs Pachuca

JUÁREZJUÁREZ

1-0-9  |  Home

0
FINAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 11:00 PM ET
Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

PACHUCAPACHUCA

1-2-3  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
JUÁREZ
18%
DRAW
21%
PACHUCA
61%
▲ Edge: +31.90% (FC Juárez)
27% Book Odds: +277
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +257
49% Book Odds: +105
Book Implied: 26.50% / 28% / 48.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 60%
Under 2.5 40%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
PACHUCA
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Pachuca)
JuárezJuárez (+0.5) 0 PachucaPachuca (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

52.2% / 47.8%

Shots (On Goal)

10(1) / 14(4)

Corners

1 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

6/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Pachuca -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Pachuca)

FC Juárez By 1 goal

11.1%

FC Juárez By 2+ goals

4.8%

Pachuca By 1 goal

26.1%

Pachuca By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 1
2
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 1
2
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pachuca Win
42% Win Prob
C
Sim Pachuca Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pachuca (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Pachuca (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 4, 2026 Juárez vs Pachuca 0 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +300.0% more
Pachuca: 1.0 vs Juárez: 4.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +200.0% more
Pachuca: 5.0 vs Juárez: 15.0
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Pachuca: 2.0 vs Juárez: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5) +150.0% more
Pachuca: 5.0 vs Juárez: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Pachuca Score 2.0 2
FC Juárez Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
FC Juárez (Home) vs Pachuca (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
FC Juárez Share: 33.3% Pachuca Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FC Juárez
Pachuca
FC Juárez
Pachuca
ML
60% 6-4
40% 4-6
70% 7-3
22% 2-7
ATS
38% 3-5-2
78% 7-2-1
78% 7-2-1
22% 2-7
TTL
56% 5-4-1
50% 5-5
78% 7-2-1
22% 2-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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