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PUEBLAPUEBLA

3-1-2  |  Home

0
FINAL
Tue, Sep 15 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Cuauhtémoc

TOLUCATOLUCA

4-1-1  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
PUEBLA
18%
DRAW
21%
TOLUCA
61%
▲ Edge: +23.70% (Puebla)
17% Book Odds: +503
DRAW 21% Book Odds: +371
66% Book Odds: -194
Book Implied: 16.60% / 21.20% / 66%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 60%
Under 3.0 40%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
PUEBLA
Book Goal Line
+1
Book Line
PueblaPuebla (+1) 0 TolucaToluca (-1)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

43.4% / 56.6%

Shots (On Goal)

14(2) / 11(3)

Corners

6 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Puebla +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Puebla)

Puebla By 1 goal

11.1%

Puebla By 2+ goals

4.8%

Toluca By 1 goal

26.1%

Toluca By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 1
2
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 2
Simulated Score
1
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 1
3
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 2
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Toluca Win
60% Win Prob
A
Sim Toluca Win
83% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Puebla (+1) Push
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Toluca (-1) Push
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 15, 2026 Puebla vs Toluca 0 - 1
Jan 30, 2026 Puebla vs Toluca 0 - 0
Sep 13, 2025 Toluca vs Puebla 3 - 1
Mar 14, 2025 Puebla vs Toluca 0 - 3
Oct 22, 2024 Toluca vs Puebla 5 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +200.0% more
Toluca: 2.0 vs Puebla: 6.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Toluca: 0.0 vs Puebla: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +85.7% more
Toluca: 13.0 vs Puebla: 7.0
Wins (L5) +33.3% more
Toluca: 4.0 vs Puebla: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Toluca Score 2.0 1
Puebla Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Puebla (Home) vs Toluca (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Puebla Share: 33.3% Toluca Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Puebla
Toluca
Puebla
Toluca
ML
44% 4-5
67% 6-3
44% 4-5
67% 6-3
ATS
67% 5-2-1
50% 4-4-1
62% 4-2-2
75% 6-2-1
TTL
50% 4-4-1
38% 3-5-1
44% 4-5
75% 6-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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