Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cowboys @ Giants DAL @ NYG

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

0-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 8:20 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

GIANTSNYG

1-0  |  Home

28
Key Game
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
@
Jordan Stout
KEY GAME

Jordan Stout

#15 | Punter
Player
Bryan Anger None-None
Jordan Stout None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
55%
📊
GIANTS
45%
▲ Edge: +5.60% (NYG)
COWBOYS 63% Book Odds: -172
GIANTS 39% Book Odds: +154
Book Implied: 63.20% / 39.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.5
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 (Over)
Over 47.5 65%
Under 47.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (New York)
CowboysDAL (-3) 0 GiantsNYG (+3)
New York Giants (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

45.7%

Giants Cover

54.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NYG +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYG)

DAL By 1-6 points

16.8%

DAL By 7-13 points

16.5%

NYG By 1-6 points

15.9%

NYG By 7-13 points

14.2%

AI Model Projected Score
27
DALLAS
Book Implied: 25.20
25.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 22.20
Simulated Score
22
DALLAS
Book Implied: 25.20
25
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 22.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cowboys Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
61% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Giants (+3) Win
Proj Spread: +1.5
A
Sim Giants (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.5
A
Sim u47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 DAL @ NYG 20 - 28
Jan 4, 2026 DAL @ NYG 17 - 34
Sep 14, 2025 NYG @ DAL 37 - 40
Nov 28, 2024 NYG @ DAL 20 - 27
Sep 26, 2024 DAL @ NYG 20 - 15
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +17.9% more
Dallas: 277.7 vs New York: 227.9
Turnovers (L5) +50.0% more
New York: 1.4 vs Dallas: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.4% more
New York: 145.7 vs Dallas: 111.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 27.0 20
NYG Score 25.5 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 22.2 29.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 227.9 / 277.7 229.0 / 175.0
Rushing Yards 145.7 / 111.7 165.0 / 69.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.82 / 0.73
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 373.6 / 389.4 394.0 / 244.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 5.9 5.8 / 4.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -156 / +138 → -172 / +154 ↓
87%TICKETS13%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → -3 / +3 ↓
61%TICKETS39%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 47.5
15%TICKETS85%
12%MONEY88%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.7
NYG Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.7
NYG Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +4.6
NYG
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYG
DAL
NYG
DAL
ML
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
100% 4-0-1
60% 3-2
ATS
100% 5-0
75% 3-1-1
100% 5-0
100% 4-0-1
TTL
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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