Home / NFL Projections NFL / Dolphins @ Raiders MIA @ LV

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

0-1  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 4:25 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

1-0  |  Home

27
Key Game
Bradley Pinion
KEY GAME

Bradley Pinion

#48 | Punter
@
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
Player
Bradley Pinion None-None
AJ Cole None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
42%
📊
RAIDERS
58%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (MIA)
DOLPHINS 42% Book Odds: +139
RAIDERS 61% Book Odds: -154
Book Implied: 41.80% / 60.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.6
Projected
Book Total
40.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 (Over)
Over 40.5 53%
Under 40.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
LAS VEGAS
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Las Vegas)
DolphinsMIA (+3) 0 RaidersLV (-3)
Las Vegas Raiders (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

33.4%

Raiders Cover

66.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LV -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LV)

MIA By 1-6 points

13.5%

MIA By 7-13 points

10.4%

LV By 1-6 points

16.7%

LV By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
17.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 18.80
23.8
LAS VEGAS
Book Implied: 21.80
Simulated Score
18
MIAMI
Book Implied: 18.80
22
LAS VEGAS
Book Implied: 21.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raiders Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Raiders Win
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raiders (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
B
Sim Raiders (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o40.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.6
D
Sim u40.5 Win
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 MIA @ LV 13 - 27
Nov 17, 2024 LV @ MIA 19 - 34
Nov 19, 2023 LV @ MIA 13 - 20
Sep 26, 2021 MIA @ LV 28 - 31
Dec 26, 2020 MIA @ LV 26 - 25
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Las Vegas: 0.3 vs Miami: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +43.3% more
Miami: 120.5 vs Las Vegas: 68.4
Yards Per Play (L5) +33.0% more
Miami: 5.3 vs Las Vegas: 3.5
Total Yards (L5) +31.2% more
Miami: 288.2 vs Las Vegas: 198.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 17.8 13
LV Score 23.8 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.4 / 16.2 21.0 / 13.0
Net Passing Yards 130.0 / 167.7 160.0 / 185.0
Rushing Yards 68.4 / 120.5 130.0 / 74.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 198.4 / 288.2 290.0 / 259.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.9 2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 3.5 / 5.3 4.3 / 5.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +169 / -194 → +139 / -154 ↓
15%TICKETS85%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +3 / -3 ↓
45%TICKETS55%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: 40.5 → 40.5
30%TICKETS70%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
0-2-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -18.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
LV Advantage
2-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 13.0 ATS +/-: +14.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
0-2-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -18.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
LV Advantage
2-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 13.0 ATS +/-: +14.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
1-1-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
LV
0-2-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LV
MIA
LV
MIA
ML
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
ATS
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
TTL
50% 1-1
0% 0-2
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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