Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bills @ Texans BUF @ HOU

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

1-0  |  Road

36
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:00 PM ET
Reliant Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

0-1  |  Home

31
Key Game
Tommy Doman Jr.
KEY GAME

Tommy Doman Jr.

#39 | Punter
@
Kai Kroeger
KEY GAME

Kai Kroeger

#38 | Punter
Player
Tommy Doman Jr. None-None
Kai Kroeger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
49%
📊
TEXANS
51%
▲ Edge: +2.40% (HOU)
BILLS 54% Book Odds: -116
TEXANS 49% Book Odds: +105
Book Implied: 53.70% / 48.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
45.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 45.0 47%
Under 45.0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.4 points (Houston)
BillsBUF (-1) 0 TexansHOU (+1)
Houston Texans (+1) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

37.7%

Texans Cover

62.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

BUF By 1-6 points

14.5%

BUF By 7-13 points

11.8%

HOU By 1-6 points

16.9%

HOU By 7-13 points

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
19.8
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 23
24.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 22
Simulated Score
23
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 23
22
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 22
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Bills Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texans (+1) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.4
B
Sim Texans (+1) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u45.0 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
D
Sim o45.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 BUF @ HOU 36 - 31
Nov 20, 2025 BUF @ HOU 19 - 23
Oct 6, 2024 BUF @ HOU 20 - 23
Oct 3, 2021 HOU @ BUF 0 - 40
Jan 4, 2020 BUF @ HOU 19 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +34.5% more
Houston: 1.5 vs Buffalo: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +29.4% more
Buffalo: 144.6 vs Houston: 102.1
Total Yards (L5) +15.6% more
Buffalo: 337.4 vs Houston: 284.7
First Downs (L5) +14.7% more
Buffalo: 20.7 vs Houston: 17.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 19.8 36
HOU Score 24.2 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.6 / 20.7 26.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 182.6 / 192.8 257.0 / 323.0
Rushing Yards 102.1 / 144.6 124.0 / 86.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 284.7 / 337.4 381.0 / 409.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.1 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.5 / 5.2 5.2 / 7.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -107 → -116 / +105 ↓
73%TICKETS27%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1 / +1 → -1 / +1
55%TICKETS45%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44 → 45 ↑
17%TICKETS83%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF Advantage
2-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.5 ATS +/-: +4.0
HOU
0-2-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -10.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
2-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.5 ATS +/-: +4.0
HOU
0-2-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -10.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
2-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +20.0
HOU
1-1-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
BUF
HOU
BUF
ML
0% 0-2
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
ATS
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
50% 1-1
0% 0-2
TTL
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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