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ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

0-1  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

1-0  |  Home

20
Key Game
Jake Bailey
KEY GAME

Jake Bailey

#16 | Punter
@
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
Player
Jake Bailey None-None
Chris Boswell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
38%
📊
STEELERS
62%
▲ Edge: +8.80% (ATL)
FALCONS 29% Book Odds: +248
STEELERS 74% Book Odds: -287
Book Implied: 28.70% / 74.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.0
Projected
Book Total
41.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 41.0 58%
Under 41.0 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
-6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Pittsburgh)
FalconsATL (+6.5) 0 SteelersPIT (-6.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

30.9%

Steelers Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PIT -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

ATL By 1-6 points

12.9%

ATL By 7-13 points

9.6%

PIT By 1-6 points

16.5%

PIT By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
18
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 17.20
25
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 23.80
Simulated Score
22
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 17.20
19
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 23.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Steelers Win
62% Win Prob
B
Sim Falcons Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Steelers (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Falcons (+6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o41.0 Loss
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Sim o41.0 Loss
Proj Total: 41.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 ATL @ PIT 13 - 20
Sep 8, 2024 PIT @ ATL 18 - 10
Dec 4, 2022 PIT @ ATL 19 - 16
Oct 7, 2018 ATL @ PIT 17 - 41
Dec 14, 2014 PIT @ ATL 27 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.4 vs Atlanta: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +58.2% more
Atlanta: 1.9 vs Pittsburgh: 0.8
Net Passing Yards (L5) +26.6% more
Atlanta: 244.1 vs Pittsburgh: 179.3
Total Yards (L5) +18.5% more
Atlanta: 339.3 vs Pittsburgh: 276.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 18.0 13
PIT Score 25.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.2 / 19.2 15.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 179.3 / 244.1 206.0 / 118.0
Rushing Yards 97.2 / 95.2 58.0 / 120.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.23 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 276.5 / 339.3 264.0 / 238.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.9 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.8 / 5.5 4.1 / 4.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +150 / -170 → +248 / -287 ↑
9%TICKETS91%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +6.5 / -6.5 ↑
37%TICKETS63%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: 41.5 → 41 ↓
24%TICKETS76%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: +1.8
PIT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: +1.8
PIT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +4.4
PIT
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
ATL
PIT
ATL
ML
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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