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BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

1-0  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:00 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
View Odds Details →

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

0-1  |  Home

23
Key Game
Ryan Eckley
KEY GAME

Ryan Eckley

#30 | Punter
@
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
Player
Ryan Eckley None-None
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAVENS
58%
📊
COLTS
42%
▲ Edge: +1.80% (IND)
RAVENS 63% Book Odds: -167
COLTS 40% Book Odds: +150
Book Implied: 62.50% / 40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.6
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 (Over)
Over 48.5 59%
Under 48.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Indianapolis)
RavensBAL (-3) 0 ColtsIND (+3)
Indianapolis Colts (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ravens Cover

44.3%

Colts Cover

55.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around IND +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

BAL By 1-6 points

16.9%

BAL By 7-13 points

16.8%

IND By 1-6 points

15.7%

IND By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
26.8
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 25.80
24.8
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 22.80
Simulated Score
26
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 25.80
22
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 22.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ravens Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Ravens Win
66% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Colts (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.0
C
Sim Ravens (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.6
B
Sim u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 BAL @ IND 41 - 23
Sep 24, 2023 IND @ BAL 22 - 19
Oct 11, 2021 IND @ BAL 25 - 31
Nov 8, 2020 BAL @ IND 24 - 10
Dec 23, 2017 IND @ BAL 16 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +52.8% more
Baltimore: 179.0 vs Indianapolis: 84.5
Total Yards (L5) +29.1% more
Baltimore: 378.6 vs Indianapolis: 268.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +24.0% more
Baltimore: 6.4 vs Indianapolis: 4.9
First Downs (L5) +23.7% more
Baltimore: 20.4 vs Indianapolis: 15.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 26.8 41
IND Score 24.8 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.6 / 20.4 17.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 183.8 / 199.6 149.0 / 304.0
Rushing Yards 84.5 / 179.0 102.0 / 202.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.3 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 268.3 / 378.6 251.0 / 506.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.4 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 6.4 4.7 / 7.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -176 / +154 → -167 / +150 ↑
91%TICKETS9%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3.5 / +3.5 → -3 / +3 ↑
68%TICKETS32%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 48.5 ↑
13%TICKETS87%
14%MONEY86%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +0.7
IND
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +0.7
IND Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.8
IND
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
BAL
IND
BAL
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 2-2-1
20% 1-4
100% 4-0-1
TTL
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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