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TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

0-1  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:00 PM ET
Paycor Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

1-0  |  Home

33
Key Game
Chase McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Chase McLaughlin

#4 | Place kicker
@
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
Player
Chase McLaughlin None-None
Ryan Rehkow None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
40%
📊
BENGALS
60%
▲ Edge: +3.90% (TB)
BUCCANEERS 37% Book Odds: +173
BENGALS 66% Book Odds: -195
Book Implied: 36.60% / 66.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
50.0
Over / Under Line
Over 50.0 49%
Under 50.0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
+4
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Tampa Bay)
BuccaneersTB (+4) 0 BengalsCIN (-4)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

56.8%

Bengals Cover

43.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TB +2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-6 points

15.5%

TB By 7-13 points

13.4%

CIN By 1-6 points

16.9%

CIN By 7-13 points

17.1%

AI Model Projected Score
23.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 23
26.2
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 27
Simulated Score
24
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 23
28
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 27
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Bengals Win
60% Win Prob
B
Sim Bengals Win
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (+4) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.4
D
Sim Buccaneers (-4) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u50.0 Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
D
Sim o50.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 TB @ CIN 27 - 33
Dec 18, 2022 CIN @ TB 34 - 23
Oct 28, 2018 TB @ CIN 34 - 37
Nov 30, 2014 CIN @ TB 14 - 13
Oct 10, 2010 TB @ CIN 24 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +81.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.8 vs Tampa Bay: 1.0
Net Passing Yards (L5) +70.0% more
Cincinnati: 227.2 vs Tampa Bay: 133.7
Total Yards (L5) +55.6% more
Cincinnati: 362.5 vs Tampa Bay: 233.0
Yards Per Play (L5) +44.4% more
Cincinnati: 5.6 vs Tampa Bay: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 23.8 27
CIN Score 26.2 33
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.3 / 15.9 26.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 227.2 / 133.7 245.0 / 193.0
Rushing Yards 135.3 / 99.3 106.0 / 89.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.57 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 362.5 / 233.0 351.0 / 282.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.0 1.0 / 4.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 3.9 5.6 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +185 / -214 → +173 / -195 ↓
13%TICKETS87%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +4 / -4 ↑
54%TICKETS46%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51 → 50 ↓
10%TICKETS90%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
0-2-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -7.5
CIN Advantage
2-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +9.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
0-2-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -7.5
CIN Advantage
2-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +9.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
2-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +5.0
CIN
1-1-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
TB
CIN
TB
ML
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
ATS
0% 0-2
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
TTL
0% 0-2
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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