Home / NFL Projections NFL / 49ers @ Rams SF @ LAR

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

1-0  |  Road

27
FINAL
Thu, Sep 10 • 8:35 PM ET
Melbourne Cricket Ground
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

RAMSLAR

0-1  |  Home

7
Key Game
Xavier Smith
KEY GAME

Xavier Smith

#-- | Wide Receiver
@
Ethan Evans
KEY GAME

Ethan Evans

#42 | Punter
Player
Xavier Smith None-None
Ethan Evans None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
49ERS
37%
📊
RAMS
63%
▲ Edge: +0.40% (SF)
49ERS 37% Book Odds: +173
RAMS 66% Book Odds: -194
Book Implied: 36.60% / 66%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
48.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.0 (Under)
Over 48.0 43%
Under 48.0 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
-3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Los Angeles)
49ersSF (+3.5) 0 RamsLAR (-3.5)
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

49ers Cover

33.4%

Rams Cover

66.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LAR -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAR)

SF By 1-6 points

13.5%

SF By 7-13 points

10.4%

LAR By 1-6 points

16.7%

LAR By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
19.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 22.20
25.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 25.80
Simulated Score
22
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 22.20
26
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 25.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Rams Loss
63% Win Prob
A
Sim Rams Loss
65% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Rams (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Sim Rams (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u48.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
A
Sim o48.0 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 10, 2026 SF @ LAR 27 - 7
Nov 9, 2025 LAR @ SF 42 - 26
Oct 2, 2025 SF @ LAR 26 - 23
Dec 12, 2024 LAR @ SF 12 - 6
Sep 22, 2024 SF @ LAR 24 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +39.9% more
Los Angeles: 277.9 vs San Francisco: 198.7
Total Yards (L5) +31.1% more
Los Angeles: 426.6 vs San Francisco: 325.4
First Downs (L5) +19.3% more
Los Angeles: 24.8 vs San Francisco: 20.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.4% more
Los Angeles: 148.7 vs San Francisco: 126.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 19.5 27
LAR Score 25.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.8 / 20.8 15.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 277.9 / 198.7 168.0 / 205.0
Rushing Yards 148.7 / 126.7 122.0 / 174.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.22 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 426.6 / 325.4 290.0 / 379.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 0.7 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.0 / 5.1 5.1 / 5.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +163 / -187 → +173 / -194 ↑
13%TICKETS87%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +3.5 / -3.5 ↑
39%TICKETS61%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 48 ↓
20%TICKETS80%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +4.4
LAR
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +4.4
LAR
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.1
LAR
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAR
SF
LAR
SF
ML
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
29% 2-5
14% 1-6
ATS
57% 4-3
14% 1-6
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
TTL
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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