Home / NFL Projections NFL / Patriots @ Seahawks NE @ SEA

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

0-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Wed, Sep 9 • 8:20 PM ET
Lumen Field
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

SEAHAWKSSEA

1-0  |  Home

13
Key Game
Mitch Wishnowsky
KEY GAME

Mitch Wishnowsky

#19 | Punter
@
Michael Dickson
KEY GAME

Michael Dickson

#4 | Punter
Player
Mitch Wishnowsky None-None
Michael Dickson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
38%
📊
SEAHAWKS
62%
PATRIOTS 40% Book Odds: +151
SEAHAWKS 63% Book Odds: -169
Book Implied: 39.80% / 62.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.5
Projected
Book Total
44.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 (Over)
Over 44.0 59%
Under 44.0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.5
SEATTLE
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Seattle)
PatriotsNE (+3) 0 SeahawksSEA (-3)
Seattle Seahawks (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

34.7%

Seahawks Cover

65.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SEA -5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

NE By 1-6 points

13.8%

NE By 7-13 points

10.8%

SEA By 1-6 points

16.8%

SEA By 7-13 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
21
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 20.50
26.5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
20
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 20.50
24
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Seahawks Win
62% Win Prob
A
Sim Seahawks Win
65% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Seahawks (-3) Push
Proj Spread: -5.5
A
Sim Seahawks (-3) Push
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o44.0 Loss
Proj Total: 47.5
A
Sim u44.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 NE @ SEA 10 - 13
Feb 8, 2026 SEA @ NE 29 - 13
Sep 15, 2024 SEA @ NE 23 - 20
Sep 20, 2020 NE @ SEA 30 - 35
Nov 13, 2016 SEA @ NE 31 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +27.8% more
Seattle: 1.5 vs New England: 1.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +11.0% more
Seattle: 226.3 vs New England: 203.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +29.6% more
New England: 143.6 vs Seattle: 101.1
First Downs (L5) +8.2% more
New England: 18.9 vs Seattle: 17.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NE Score 21.0 10
SEA Score 26.5 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.3 / 18.9 13.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 226.3 / 203.9 188.0 / 168.0
Rushing Yards 101.1 / 143.6 97.0 / 109.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.18 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 327.3 / 347.6 285.0 / 277.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.2 0.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 6.0 5.9 / 4.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +159 / -181 → +151 / -169 ↓
18%TICKETS82%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +3 / -3 ↓
54%TICKETS46%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44.5 → 44 ↓
29%TICKETS71%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
SEA Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
SEA
1-1-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
SEA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
NE
SEA
NE
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 1-1-2
33% 1-2-1
50% 1-1-2
33% 1-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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