Home / MLB Projections MLB / Twins @ White Sox MIN @ CHW

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

68-75  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Sep 6 • 6:20 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

75-68  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Bailey Ober
STARTING PITCHER

Bailey Ober

#17 | Starting Pitcher
@
Bryan Hudson
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Hudson

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bailey Ober 7-4 4.37 1.24 113.1 79
Bryan Hudson 4-4 3.03 1.21 59.1 55
7-4 W-L 4-4
4.37 ERA Ldr 3.03
1.24 WHIP Ldr 1.21
113.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 59.1
79 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 55
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
42%
📊
WHITE SOX
58%
TWINS 46% Book Odds: +120
WHITE SOX 59% Book Odds: -144
Book Implied: 45.50% / 59%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.5 59%
Under 8.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
TwinsMIN (+1.5) 0 White SoxCHW (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

64.6%

White Sox Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-2 runs

15.0%

MIN By 3-4 runs

9.2%

CHW By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHW By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.50
5.5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
4
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.50
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI White Sox Win
58% Win Prob
B
Sim White Sox Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Twins (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim White Sox (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.5
C
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 MIN @ CHW 1 - 10
Sep 5, 2026 MIN @ CHW 6 - 4
Sep 4, 2026 MIN @ CHW 1 - 4
Aug 30, 2026 CHW @ MIN 1 - 5
Aug 29, 2026 CHW @ MIN 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.56
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.720
OPS
▲ .826
187 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +31.6% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Minnesota: 4.6
Errors (L5) +31.0% more
Chicago: 0.6 vs Minnesota: 0.3
Walks (L5) +21.5% more
Chicago: 3.3 vs Minnesota: 2.7
Home Runs (L5) +15.1% more
Chicago: 1.5 vs Minnesota: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 4.0 1
CHW Score 5.5 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.1 / 8.8 12.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.3 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.8 / 9.8 12.0 / 15.0
Total Bases 11.7 / 14.9 23.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.3 / 2.7 10.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +101 / -122 → +120 / -144 ↑
28%TICKETS72%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
27%TICKETS73%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
74%TICKETS26%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
MIN
CHW
MIN
ML
49% 81-86
52% 84-78
56% 94-73
50% 80-81
ATS
59% 99-68
59% 95-67
56% 93-74
59% 95-66
TTL
58% 96-69-2
51% 78-75-9
51% 84-81-2
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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