Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Rockies STL @ COL

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

72-72  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Sep 6 • 3:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

55-88  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Leahy
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Leahy

#62 | Starting Pitcher
@
Tanner Gordon
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Gordon

#29 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Leahy 10-4 3.13 1.31 129.1 118
Tanner Gordon 1-4 5.18 1.40 88.2 72
10-4 W-L 1-4
3.13 Ldr ERA 5.18
1.31 Ldr WHIP 1.40
129.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 88.2
118 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 72
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
55%
📊
ROCKIES
45%
CARDINALS 58% Book Odds: -136
ROCKIES 47% Book Odds: +113
Book Implied: 57.60% / 46.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
11.0
Over / Under Line
Over 11.0 50%
Under 11.0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Colorado)
CardinalsSTL (-1.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+1.5)
Colorado Rockies (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

36.3%

Rockies Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

STL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

17.2%

COL By 1-2 runs

15.3%

COL By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
6.2
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 6.20
4.8
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 6.20
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
55% Win Prob
C
Sim Cardinals Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u11.0 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u11.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 STL @ COL 10 - 8
Sep 5, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 10
Sep 4, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 6
Aug 9, 2026 COL @ STL 4 - 7
Aug 8, 2026 COL @ STL 8 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.691
OPS
▲ .739
167
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +51.3% more
St. Louis: 1.5 vs Colorado: 0.7
Errors (L5) +48.5% more
St. Louis: 1.0 vs Colorado: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5) +42.6% more
St. Louis: 10.2 vs Colorado: 5.9
Total Bases (L5) +11.0% more
St. Louis: 17.5 vs Colorado: 15.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 6.2 10
COL Score 4.8 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.3 / 10.9 10.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.9 / 10.2 16.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 17.5 17.0 / 21.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.1 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -149 / +123 → -136 / +113 ↑
81%TICKETS19%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
88%TICKETS12%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 11 ↑
73%TICKETS27%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
STL
COL
STL
ML
60% 97-64
53% 85-74
55% 88-73
52% 84-77
ATS
60% 97-64
56% 89-70
52% 83-78
53% 85-76
TTL
60% 93-62-6
46% 68-81-10
50% 77-78-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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