ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
76-68 | Road
3
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
73-71 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Eduardo Rodriguez
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Peter Lambert
#38 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 14-5 | 2.59 | 1.22 | 167.0 | 122 |
| Peter Lambert | 8-7 | 3.66 | 1.24 | 132.2 | 131 |
14-5
W-L
8-7
2.59 Ldr
ERA
3.66
1.22 Ldr
WHIP
1.24
167.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
132.2
122
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 131
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
51%
ASTROS
49%
▲ Edge: +0.60% (ARI)
DIAMONDBACKS
51%
Book Odds: -103
ASTROS
54%
Book Odds: -117
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0
55%
Under 8.0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
HOU By 1-2 runs
15.0%
HOU By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 4.80
Houston
3.5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 4.80
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
ARI @ HOU
3 - 2
Sep 5, 2026
ARI @ HOU
4 - 3
Sep 4, 2026
ARI @ HOU
1 - 3
Jul 23, 2025
HOU @ ARI
4 - 3
Jul 22, 2025
HOU @ ARI
3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.720
▲
OPS
.582
166
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.6% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+39.0% more
Arizona: 1.0
vs
Houston: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+34.2% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+13.8%
Arizona: 72.0%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.0
3
HOU Score
3.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 6.1
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 7.2
12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 10.5
11.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.7 / 2.4
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112
→
-103 / -117
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ARI
HOU
ARI
ML
50%
81-82
54%
87-74
47%
77-87
54%
86-74
ATS
56%
91-72
57%
91-70
55%
90-74
56%
89-71
TTL
45%
70-84-9
52%
80-73-8
45%
69-86-9
49%
73-77-9
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Rich Rodriguez's Arizona Legacy: All-Star Team Rekindles Tucson …