DETROIT
TIGERSDET
65-78 | Road
2
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
73-71 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jackson Jobe
#21 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gavin Williams
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Jobe | 1-2 | 4.63 | 1.46 | 23.1 | 19 |
| Gavin Williams | 13-7 | 3.81 | 1.09 | 163.0 | 217 |
1-2
W-L
13-7
4.63
ERA
Ldr 3.81
1.46
WHIP
Ldr 1.09
23.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 163.0
19
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 217
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
37%
GUARDIANS
63%
TIGERS
42%
Book Odds: +141
GUARDIANS
63%
Book Odds: -171
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
69%
Under 7.0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
15.3%
DET By 3-4 runs
9.5%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
3.8
DETROIT
Book Implied: 2.80
Cleveland
5.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Book Implied: 2.80
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Guardians
Win
63% Win Prob
A
Sim
Tigers
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
DET @ CLE
2 - 3
Sep 5, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 7
Aug 13, 2026
CLE @ DET
0 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
CLE @ DET
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.720
▲
OPS
.696
181
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+68.7% more
Cleveland: 11.3
vs
Detroit: 6.7
Walks (L5)
+36.1% more
Cleveland: 3.2
vs
Detroit: 2.4
Errors (L5)
+26.0% more
Cleveland: 0.9
vs
Detroit: 0.6
Home Runs (L5)
+31.3% more
Detroit: 1.1
vs
Cleveland: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
3.8
2
CLE Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 9.9
7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
11.3 / 6.7
17.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
10.9 / 15.4
13.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.4
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +138 / -167
→
+141 / -171
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DET
CLE
DET
ML
54%
87-75
54%
86-73
49%
80-83
54%
87-73
ATS
57%
93-69
64%
101-58
58%
95-68
57%
91-69
TTL
56%
89-71-2
46%
69-81-9
44%
70-90-2
46%
69-81-10
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox